Not for the first time in his career Tony Abbott is being spoken of as a possible future Liberal leader. That says a lot about the state of the Opposition because he was a rank outsider in November 2007 when Brendan Nelson defeated Malcolm Turnbull. It is not only supporters of Blessed Mary MacKillop who are searching for another miracle.
There have been numerous articles about Abbott's leadership potential since he was first elected in 1994. There was also the joint biography touting two future leaders by Michael Duffy that he shared with Mark Latham in 2004. He is still only 51 but he has a wealth of political experience and merits consideration.
Abbott has many sides to his personality. The positives and negatives provoke heated disagreement about the final accounting. Despite being so divisive, he should be among the candidates should Malcolm Turnbull fall over as leader.
Indeed, he is one of the four whose merits Newspoll is canvassing in its leadership surveys. He ranks behind Peter Costello, Joe Hockey and Turnbull but he still has a not inconsequential 10 per cent support. His brand of conservatism makes him stand out from the other three, and he and Hockey, in particular, are miles apart on many issues.
Three years ago, when the Liberal leadership after Howard was being discussed, I concluded: ''The Liberals might turn to Abbott one day, but only if in dire straits and when a fire-cracker is needed to catch the attention of the Australian electorate. Despite his obvious abilities he would not be seen as a steady choice, though he might do well for a time. He might divide his own party. Many voters would find him attractive. But ultimately they would probably opt for someone safer and Abbott as leader would then become a disability.''
Nothing much has changed in my view because little has changed about Abbott himself.
In considering Abbott's credentials I've sought inspiration from one of my favourite items of political memorabilia, a portrait in The Canberra Times by Ian Sharpe (2001). It accompanied an article entitled ''Howard's bovver boy'', by Emma Macdonald. The striking likeness, in the form of a hob-nailed boot, or is it a boxing pump, shows the piercing eye, the sharp intelligence and the ready smile as well as the aggression and readiness not only to have a fight but to enjoy it.
Abbott combines freshness and honesty with an unguarded tongue and a doggedness that refuses to let go of some topics well past their use-by date. One of these is the limitations of Kevin Rudd, and no one on the Opposition benches, with the possible exception of the now-departed Alexander Downer, has made the personal attack on Rudd into such an art form. This is evident in a couple of recent examples.
One was his comment on the Prime Minister's alleged lobbying of Pope Benedict about sainthood for Mary MacKillop. While opinions vary about the merits of Rudd's approach, surely it does Abbott, in particular, no good to take a line which reinforces his somewhat self-proclaimed standing as Australia's best-known Catholic politician.
This shows poor judgement in picking options to advance rather than damage his reputation. Abbott's brand of Catholicism is a mixed blessing for him, not only among Catholic voters but among the wider electorate. It certainly attracts some supporters, inside and outside his own church, as does his determination to proclaim his own values. But for many it deflects attention from more pressing issues.
His second comment came in a profile in The Sunday Age about his forthcoming book, Battlelines (Melbourne University Press). That he has written this book deserves a positive mark. He is quoted as remarking with a typically attractive honesty that he felt a little sorry for himself after the 2007 election, but then spoils the impression by adding that he was particularly hurt because, ''I think we lost to an unworthy opponent''.
Not only is this an ungracious remark, but the Opposition's quest to return to the government benches at the next election won't be assisted by underestimating the Prime Minister. It suggests that Abbott hasn't properly come to terms with the generally accepted reasons for the Howard government's defeat, including Rudd's qualities.
The pluses for Abbott as leader include his ministerial and parliamentary experience and his sharpness and skills in the House of Representatives chamber. He is also a person of depth and substance, a reader, a thinker and a writer. Many of those around him are not. He both attracts and repels his opponents.
The negatives include the hard and unbending public face that he presents, despite possessing an attractive, hail-fellow well-met private personality. He is a political brawler while still proclaiming adherence to the highest personal ethics. Anthony Albanese recently compared Turnbull to Latham, but in terms of style, though not beliefs, the closer comparison is between Abbott and Latham. Like Latham, Abbott regularly makes unforced errors.
Abbott may well be the man thrown into the ring as Opposition leader about Christmas time if the situation still seems desperate for the Liberals. This would make for a highly entertaining no-holds-barred election campaign in which Abbott's conservative positioning and aggression would leave no doubt in the minds of voters about the differences between the two parties.
This might prove risky for the Opposition but at least it would not damage the next generation of Liberals and it might just be that Abbott can perform the necessary miracle for his party. Stranger things have happened.
John Warhurst is an adjunct professor of political science in the School of Social Sciences at the Australian National University. John.Warhurst@anu.edu.au
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