Labor's losses in Saturday's Western Australian election serve as a reminder to governments everywhere that they wield a double-edged sword when seeking to capitalise on divided and dysfunctional oppositions. Particularly when they do so in as transparently cynical a fashion as did Premier Alan Carpenter.
In calling a snap election in August, six months ahead of schedule, Carpenter barely bothered to disguise the fact that he was exploiting the uncertainty within the Liberal Party (which has changed leaders four times in four years). The need for certainty in WA politics, he said, had overwhelmed all other considerations in deciding an election date. Doubtless he was confident that, whatever outrage voters felt about Labor calling an early election, they would baulk at ditching a government in favour of a badly divided WA Liberal Party.
Paul Omedei's dumping as party leader in favour of Troy Buswell earlier this year led to an outbreak of internecine warfare in the Liberal Party, with one MP declaring her intention to resign at the next election and another becoming an Independent.
The dysfunction within the party turned to public embarrassment when allegations surfaced that Buswell had sexually harassed a number of female parliamentary staffers. After barely eight months in the top job, Buswell was forced to resign early last month. With speculation mounting about an early election, and no obvious successor to Buswell, the Liberals turned to Colin Barnett, the man who'd led the party to its 2005 election loss (and who had declared his intention to retire at the next election) to accept the leadership. Carpenter called the election the very next day.
In seeking to capitalise on the Liberals' woes, Carpenter was taking a gamble himself, because his Government had been racked by a number of ministerial resignations and sackings since its re-election. Most had followed revelations by the WA Crime and Corruption Commission that a number of cabinet ministers and MPs had been suborned by former premier turned lobbyist Brian Burke. With another CCC report imminent, and the Liberals about to recycle a leader humiliated in the 2005 election, Carpenter would have needed no urging from his party to go to the polls early.
There was another factor that influenced Labor's strategic thinking: an electoral redistribution in 2006 which enshrined the principle of one-vote, one value. For the first time in the state's history, average enrolments in Perth and non-metropolitan electorates became roughly equal, and the Legislative Assembly was increased from 57 to 59 seats. Eight new seats were created in Perth, and the number of non-metropolitan seats was reduced by six. Labor was not completely favoured by the redistribution, but many electoral commentators thought it could retain a majority of seats in this election with a little as 49 per cent of the two-party vote.
Underlining its flimsy pretext for calling an early election, Labor's campaign was largely negative, and concentrated on the message that the Liberals could not be trusted in government. Carpenter also ran strongly on opposition to uranium mining and the introduction of genetically modified crops in WA issues that some commentators felt were pushed with a view to winning vital Greens preferences rather than out of any strong ideological commitment.
The Liberals, by contrast, eschewed their 2005 campaign strategy of making extravagant and poorly costed promises (the most memorable being Barnett's plan to solve Perth's water shortage by bringing water from the Kimberley via a canal) and instead concentrated on minimising mistakes and reminding voters of Labor's unsavoury links with Burke. In reality, there was little to distinguish the two parties' main policies: the WA economy continues to perform strongly on the back of the commodities boom and, as a result, levels of investment in roads, public transport, schools and hospitals are the envy of every state and territory government in Australia. The policy convergence between the two major parties, born of caution rather than convenience, saw many voters undecided in the immediate run-up to the election, and led most analysts to tip a hung parliament.
While the 6 per cent swing to the Liberals was not sufficient to enable it to form a government in its own right, it was enough to signal Carpenter's demise. Though further counting will be needed to determine some close contests, the most likely prospect is a conservative coalition government. There is little amity between Barnett and Nationals leader Brendan Grylls. Indeed, the latter has specifically insisted his party will not enter a coalition with the Liberals. But, given their ideological affinity, and the prospect of a cabinet offer or some other concession, it is difficult to see the Nationals holding out on their conservative colleagues for long.