The new President of Pakistan, Asif Ali Zardari, will do little to allay US and NATO concerns at the flow of insurgents and weapons from Pakistan to Afghanistan. The US transferred support from Bhutto to Zardari but, like his murdered wife, Zardari will be unable to meet US expectations. Zardari doesn't have the strength of character and the domestic support to drive the US agenda. It is an agenda increasingly resented and resisted within Pakistan and its prosecution is fuelling the ranks of Taliban recruits.
At the Nikah ceremony, forming part of the arranged marriage of Benazir Bhutto to Asif Ali Zardari on December 18, 1987, a conversation with Zardari left me with the impression he was rather lightweight, with little interest in the matters seizing the mind and energy of his future wife. In taking my leave I said I looked forward to meeting him again, and he said, ''If you remember me.'' For a person lacking self-confidence and any interest in politics it might be thought that Zardari has come a long way but until the death of his wife he had done little to impress, other than to feed the scorn and anger of Benazir's opponents with allegations of his corruption.
It was his media profile, through his wife, that the Pakistan People's Party sought in a country where illiteracy makes profile important and where the dynastic rule of the rich is accepted. The mistake for the West is not to see the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan as a line on a colonial map. People on both sides of the line are related, they share a common language, culture, religion and economic hardship. They make a living from growing wheat, opium, herding goats and sheep, trading and smuggling. It is a tough and harsh environment in which males over 15 learn to use a weapon.
On the Pakistani side of the border the area comprises two of Pakistan's four provinces, Baluchistan and North West Frontier Province. The British did not entirely establish a presence and neither have the Punjabis who make up the bulk of Pakistan's army and public service. Maintaining some semblance of control from Islamabad has exercised the collective mind and talent of the Inter-Services Intelligence agency since Partition.
The US bombing of villages and homes in the western tribal area of NWFP serves only to weaken the tenuous influence Islamabad exercises over the region.
The US has learnt none of the lessons of Vietnam.
The US and NATO presence conveys a sense of being occupied. Couple this with arrogance; the misuse of force resulting in the destruction of property and homes; and the deaths of innocents, including children; and it translates over time into armed recruits fighting for the opposition.
The Russians found in Afghanistan that they were fighting a number of different warlords, all with a different agenda. And so it is now for the US and its allies.
The policy driving the war and the manner in which it is being prosecuted make the war in Afghanistan unwinnable.
Terrorism is founded in belief, ideology and emotion. Does anyone in the Western alliance seriously believe they can blast, kill and maim their way to a victory in which no known terrorist is left standing in Afghanistan?
Are our diplomats in Pakistan talking to everyone and anyone with a stake in the conflict? What are the expectations of those involved? Is there any common ground between the protagonists?
President Zardari offers the Americans as much hope in Pakistan as President Nguyen van Thieu did in Vietnam.
US bombing within Pakistan will galvanise retaliatory action in the form of bombings and sniper attacks against Zardari and his supporters in government, and against US and allied diplomats in Pakistan.
The economic crises impacting on America will probably determine the level of its future commitment to Afghanistan, which is another reason to talk while it still has leverage. Should the US come to rely on foreign loans it might be expected that at some point lenders would seek conditionality with respect to foreign and trade policy. Arab lenders might seek to force the US out of Afghanistan. Australia has no business in the conflict. It is a regional issue. Australia allowed itself to be sucked in on the basis of our alliance with the US, which increasingly promises little. The war in Afghanistan will not bring about an end of al-Qaeda or the Taliban: to do so by military means would take more troops than the US put into Vietnam and the absence of many other regional factors that play out against the US.
In these uncertain times Australia needs to get its house in order and prepare for unusual and unpredictable events that might unfold closer to home. Australia does not need its forces strung out around the world, particularly when the US has a reduced and reducing capacity to service our Vietnam, Gulf War, Iraq and Afghanistan contribution to the alliance.
Bruce Haigh is a retired diplomat who served twice in Pakistan and Afghanistan.