Senator John McCain's maverick choice of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin for his vice-presidential running mate has turned the focus to how women will vote in the United States presidential election. The prevailing wisdom suggests that it is their votes that will determine the outcome on November 4.
American women voters have outnumbered men since 1964 and have outvoted men since 1980. In the 2004 election, 65 per cent of women turned out to vote, compared with 62 per cent of men. It is a right their ancestors fought for decades to earn. Now, nearly 90 years after the 19th Amendment to the US Constitution gave them that right, women are a critical campaign target group. A majority of women have chosen the winner in five of the last seven US presidential elections.
Traditionally, women are thought to gravitate more toward the so-called SHE cluster of issues social security, health care, and education while men are considered more interested in the WE issues war and the economy.
However, the last three national elections (2002, 2004 and 2006) show that these simplistic and convenient boxes no longer apply, although it is true that women, especially those in suburbia, have slowly moved to the left over issues such as gun control, the war in Iraq and health-care costs. Women now make up a majority of those who consider themselves Democrats, 58 per cent in one recent national survey.
This year the focus has moved from soccer moms and, notwithstanding Palin's advocacy, ice-hockey moms to Wal-Mart women. These are the women who regularly shop at the world's largest retailer and they are this year's quintessential swinging voters. They comprise 17 per cent of the electorate, a large enough bloc to influence who ends up in the White House.
Pollsters see Wal-Mart women as the new Reagan Democrats. They tend to be white, more conservative, more religious, are often single mothers or retirees, and are suffering under the economic crisis, with many juggling family budgets from pay day to pay day.
Will Palin and her conservative values appeal to these women? Recent polling and focus groups done for Women's Voices Women Vote Action found that Palin's acceptance speech improved her favourability rating among women who saw it. They were impressed with her poise and confidence, but it resulted in little electoral movement.
Fifty-two per cent of women polled said they will vote for the all-male Democrat ticket and only 41 per cent said they will vote for the McCain-Palin ticket. The gap is wider among unmarried women, 63 per cent of whom support Barack Obama. The speech helped reinforce support for McCain among those who were leaning toward voting Republican, but did not influence those who were undecided or leaning toward voting Democrat.
Moreover, most women had questions about Palin's experience, especially about her ability to tackle their No1 issue, the economy. Unmarried women were more likely to question her expertise, to be sceptical about her abilities and to question what she brings to the Republican ticket.
An ABC News poll showed that Americans had a slightly more favourable opinion of Joe Biden than Palin. Only 42 per cent of Americans thought Palin had the kind of experience it took to serve effectively as president if that became necessary. Far more (66 per cent) said Biden had the needed experience.
In the past, vice-presidential candidates have had an impact on the narrative of presidential campaigns, but have had little or no impact on how people vote. Whenever the issue was polled, a large majority of respondents said the vice-presidential selection made no difference to their vote. Only about a quarter, at best, said they were more likely to support the nominee because of the running mate.
The presidential race this time around has two very different tickets and so it is possible that the 2008 election will be different to all those have gone before. That possibility will only be confirmed on election day.
Dr Lesley Russell is the Menzies Foundation Fellow at the Menzies Centre for Health Policy, University of Sydney/Australian National University. She was a senior political adviser in the US House of Representatives from 1984-91.
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