When Parliament rose late last year, a good number of Labor MPs were undecided about what to do about the malaise afflicting the Gillard Government.
Now, as they trudge back to Canberra for next week's blue sky session, some are none the wiser.
That is very bad news for the PM. She needs a rock solid team, not one with divided loyalties.
Kevin Rudd may not have much support in the caucus but the existence of the ongoing leadership speculation is damaging. Inevitably, the incumbent can no more control leakers than herd cats, as previous leaders on both sides of politics have discovered.
The seriousness of Gillard's situation is illustrated by the sarcasm in the following comment by a Rudd backer about tomorrow's special meeting of caucus to discuss ideas and strategy.
''Having a meeting on the bridge of the Titanic about navigation techniques and speed and areas that are known to have icebergs is a good thing to have - probably before you hit the iceberg though.''
The undecided rump in caucus is baffled that the Government is flatlining in the polls and that the nation does not seem to appreciate having its first female Prime Minister.
Despite the outward optimism of some in caucus, and ministers rallying around the PM this week, the mood that is emerging is resignation to what the polls are reflecting - that Julia Gillard's authority has been diminished and, perhaps, the electorate is no longer listening.
That's a dangerous thought for a Labor MP to harbour, because it implies inevitability about the situation.
For a start, they would have to conclude that they were wrong to replace Kevin Rudd with Gillard. And secondly, that the only choice now facing them is to pick between the two and, somehow, make that selection stick to the next election.
As Parliament resumes, there is no third candidate waiting to rescue Labor. For a while it looked like Stephen Smith or Bill Shorten could fill that role. Neither will do now, as the pressure builds and the focus tightens around the two main players.
But what could possibly be achieved by a return to Rudd?
He was widely disliked for micro-managing ministers and for expecting public servants to match his manic work hours, and his judgment was questioned when he moved so quickly to new issues that voters were bamboozled. These reminders of the past are being put around by Gillard's supporters. However, that was the past.
The political reality is that Gillard is in the hot seat and it is her judgment that is being questioned. Her critics in caucus still return, like a dog to its vomit, to her decision to undermine her incumbency by refusing to move into the Lodge until elected by voters, and her subsequent judgment to rush to an election before establishing she could do the top job.
They remain scathing about the signed deal with the Greens when Adam Bandt had already declared he would be prepared to support a Labor minority government, if push came to shove, and about the deal's imagery that the Greens appear to be in control.
And about breaking her promise over the carbon tax. And about locking in an impossible-to-deliver deal on pokies with Andrew Wilkie instead of holding firm for a vaguer commitment, such as the one she has now given to the Tasmanian Independent.
Hindsight is 20/20 vision but certainly the polls indicate her past is dogging her. Which brings the focus back to Rudd.
His camp claims the intense media interest in him is due primarily to how badly the PM is doing, not from the Foreign Minister ''just doing his job''. No matter how much truth this bears, the argument is clearly self-serving.
The more the message gets around that Gillard is floundering and flailing, the more inclined the undecided MPs may be to jump onto the Rudd bandwagon. Or they could decide, since switching back to Rudd implies they made a bad call in mid-2010, to stick doggedly with the PM and come out fighting.
Unsurprisingly, that's the view of Simon Crean, her long-time ally. He knows what it's like to be tapped on the shoulder by team members who are supposed to be loyal.
He became Labor leader after the 2001 election, taking over from Kim Beazley who had led the party to two election defeats. Subsequently Crean became the first Labor leader in almost a century to be replaced without being allowed to contest an election.
When he flatlined in the polls, Beazley made noises about being recruited. Then Mark Latham put up his hand and Crean supported the newcomer, keeping out Beazley.
Crean provoked some mirth this week by declaring Rudd couldn't return to the nation's top job because he was a prima donna. No doubt Gough Whitlam, Hawke and Keating are feeling better about themselves today.
Rudd's camp is concerned, ironically, about the media frenzy building over the leadership as Parliament returns - it wants no movement until after the Queensland election.
''Before Christmas a clear majority of caucus were not happy,'' a key player says. ''It is going to take a week or so after we return to Parliament to work out the current situation. I am sure of one thing - anyone who was unhappy [before Christmas], it's hard to believe they would be any happier now.''
It is widely anticipated that Anna Bligh's Government will crash under the weight of the ''it's time'' factor and the long-awaited decision by the conservative side of politics to choose a leader from Brisbane.
Is Rudd silly to be campaigning strongly in Brisbane? He can't do otherwise, as a local and as a friend of Bligh.
He will campaign when he is in Australia and Gillard will have to make an appearance or two but it would be awkward to have both at the formal campaign launch.
After the expected thumping, Gillard can assert the campaign was fought on state issues and that's mostly true - if you forget her knifing of the local lad. But at least Rudd will have fought the good fight and showed he was a ''team player''.
''It is much more likely for something to happen [on the leadership] post the Queensland election than before it but I'd also say I don't dismiss the fact that things can get out of control pretty quickly,'' an insider says.
''Will we get to a critical stage where something ignites? That I do not know for sure, and as to when it might be.''
While Rudd will miss tomorrow's session, a spark may come out from a Four Corners program on Rudd, scheduled for broadcast on Monday week.
Ross Peake is Political Editor.
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