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National Times

Enter the year of the dragon

February 3, 2012

Opinion

Enter the year of the dragon

A senior Opposition MP has cheerfully been informing anyone who will listen this week that the Chinese New Year has commenced.

This person, a shadow minister, isn't Chinese but has welcomed the traditional lunar new year with enthusiasm.

And that's because it is now the Year of the Dragon.

Enter the year of the dragon

''Year of the Dragon,'' the MP is saying.

''Lots of fire breathing. Volatility and upheaval for sure. That's certainly going to be the case in Parliament.''

And so we learn a little of the mindset within the Coalition as Opposition members enter the battleground of a new political year.

Parliament returns on Tuesday and there should be no misconceptions that proceedings will in any way resemble a love-in.

Much is at stake this year for all sides of politics.

It seems a cruel joke to even remind anyone that this time last year there was still some talk remaining of the new paradigm and a fresh era of cooperation.

Political cooperation will be an even rarer commodity in 2012 than it was in 2011.

The first thing to watch out for next week will be discussion over a no-confidence motion against the Government. Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has already flagged the possibility in response to the Australia Day protest and the role a staff member of Prime Minister Julia Gillard played in helping to incite it.

He suspects the staffer, who has since resigned, didn't act alone and that there has been a political cover-up in the PM's office.

There are many questions left unanswered in relation to the incident that resulted in Gillard and Abbott being trapped inside Canberra's The Lobby restaurant for half an hour before being evacuated under heavy police guard past a mob of angry Aboriginal activists.

But Abbott isn't likely to go ahead with a no-confidence motion he can't win, even though Independent MP Andrew Wilkie has expressed his willingness to join in the debate.

Wilkie is more than a little disgruntled at being fobbed off over his poker machine reforms.

He feels betrayed by Gillard, who has backed away from a promise to pass legislation that would fundamentally change how gamblers use pokies.

The Tasmanian Independent will be one MP to keep an eye on this year as he could cause the Government a lot of grief.

Abbott this week praised Wilkie as a decent and honourable person. This is the same MP who rejected Abbott's importuning following the last election and instead threw his support behind Labor to help Gillard form minority government.

Much has changed since then and Abbott now senses the possibility of Wilkie being an ally on some issues.

Gillard was only able to dismiss Wilkie's pokies agenda because she ended last year having secured a non-Labor Speaker in the House of Representatives.

That manoeuvre returned former Speaker Harry Jenkins to Labor's backbench, providing Gillard the breathing space she hadn't previously enjoyed and making her less reliant on Wilkie's support in Parliament.

Not that the new Speaker Peter Slipper is going to provide a trouble free year for the Government.

The former Coalition MP has angered the Opposition over his defection and he his tenure in the chair will not be without controversy.

Expect a continuous drip feed of scandal and innuendo about the new Speaker aimed at undermining his authority and causing embarrassment for the Government.

For his part, Slipper will be at pains to be seen as an ... adjudicator and will be just as tough on both the Government and the Opposition.

There's more grief looming for Gillard from within her own ranks, however, not least courtesy of the Member for Dobell Craig Thomson.

Abbott this week described as an ''institutional go-slow'' the Fair Work Australia investigation into allegations Thomson corruptly used his former Health Services Union credit card.

In the Senate next week, the Opposition plans to move a motion to address suggestions of collusion between the Government and FWA over the investigation.

The Government will be hoping to avoid the embarrassment the inquiry into Thomson will finally report, but the findings can't be delayed much longer.

If Thomson is found to have acted corruptly, including using the credit card to pay for the services of prostitutes, the fallout will be severely damaging for Labor.

Gillard stood by Thomson through all the public accusations last year.

But last year she had little choice.

If Thomson went he would have taken a crucial parliamentary vote with him.

This year Gillard has an extra seat and vote, courtesy of Slipper's elevation to the Speaker's chair.

But still, she wants to keep that margin and will try and avoid returning to the knife-edge of 2011.

Standing by Thomson if an adverse finding is made against him, however, would be severely damaging to the Labor Government.

Thomson might turn out to be the least of Gillard's worries if all the speculation about Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd is correct.

The former prime minister wants his old job back - there is no doubt about that.

It is just a matter of whether he can garner enough support from the Labor caucus who eagerly cast him aside for Gillard midway through 2010.

Word is, he's getting there.

Publicly, he declares himself a team player - and as Foreign Minister he is doing a good job.

But Rudd's memories of The Lodge are still fresh and Gillard's polling is worse than his ever was.

The Prime Minister is definitely losing some key supporters and the clock is ticking against her.

Political lecturer at Australian National University Andrew Hughes thinks Gillard should try and use the unrest within Labor to her advantage and take the initiative.

''There has to be a spill and the sooner the better,'' he says.

''Gillard should bring it on and not wait for Rudd to challenge. This background stuff is really damaging for the party.

''The year ahead will be very interesting politically and the number-one issue for Labor has to be to resolve their leadership issue once and for all.

''It's really hurting their brand - not just for Gillard and Rudd, but it's hurting the Labor brand in general. And while it's all going on Abbott will probably just press ahead with his small target strategy.

''Abbott wants to see who will be the Labor leader and so he will keep a small target for a while yet. In the back of his mind is that Gillard might well lose against Rudd.

''But Abbott should rethink that a little. The small target approach backfired for Kim Beazley, who was ahead in the polls against John Howard yet actually lost his last election against him pretty convincingly.''

Hughes believes the Queensland election, slated for March 24, has thrown up an interesting dilemma for Federal Labor and in particular the Prime Minister.

Rudd, still popular in Queensland, is on the campaign trail helping out embattled Labor Premier Anna Bligh.

Gillard is nowhere to be seen in the Sunshine State.

All indications are that Labor will be turfed out of office. But if Rudd can save it from being a bloodbath he will once again be a Labor hero.

''The Queensland election - it's something the Prime Minister should be doing, not just Rudd,'' Hughes says.

''But in the Queensland market, Rudd has a stronger brand and appeal than does Gillard.'' But when it comes down to it, the main game for both sides of politics is the economy.

This week both leaders staked their territories and spruiked their credentials as economic leaders.

At the National Press Club on Tuesday, Abbott declared it to be his focus for the year ahead.

''The only foundation for a successful country is a strong economy,'' he said.

''The only way to take the pressure off family budgets, to increase job opportunities, and to have the better services and infrastructure that every Australian wants is to build a stronger economy.

''That's why my plan for a stronger economy is to scrap unnecessary taxes, cut government spending and reduce the red tape burden on business.

''My plan to reduce the cost of living pressures on families is to take the carbon tax off their power and transport and make government live within its means. That way, there can be lower taxes and less upward pressure on interest rates.''

Abbott gave few details of his economic plan for the country, but instead dwelt on the Government's failings as he sees them.

The rhetoric was good though and it was all about the economy.

''At the heart of our plan for a stronger economy is getting government spending down and productivity up so that borrowing reduces, the pressure on interest rates comes off, and taxes can responsibly come down,'' he said.

''The first act of an incoming Coalition government will be to prepare the carbon tax repeal legislation to take the pressure off the power prices and transport prices that feed through to every price in our economy.

''Australians can have tax cuts without a carbon tax, but only if we get government spending down by eliminating wasteful and unnecessary programs and permanently reducing the size of government.''

The very next day Gillard delivered her first major speech of the year, to a gathering of business people in Melbourne.

Her message too was all about the economy.

She was more emphatic than she or Treasurer Wayne Swan have been in recent times about delivering a budget surplus this year. She promised it would happen and said it was more important that it did in light of the economic turmoil currently embroiling Europe.

''My firm conclusion is that handing down a budget surplus in May is the right call in the present economic circumstances,'' she said.

''The current international instability stems in large part from real concerns about sovereign risk - and perceptions of risk in various national economies can change quickly, indeed they have on occasion in recent times.

''So our fiscal policy must be disciplined and must be seen to be disciplined as well. It's in our interest to keep ourselves well ahead of the pack.

''A strong sovereign credit rating also underpins strong bank credit ratings. A very important boost to the availability of credit for Australian business and to economic activity in Australia flows from our fiscal discipline.''

Gillard went on to stress again the importance returning the budget to surplus.

''Critically, the Australian economy is growing. Putting the budget into surplus when domestic economic growth is around trend means that we are well positioned to deal with further global financial and economic uncertainty and crises if that should occur,'' she said. ''And it increases the scope for our ... Reserve Bank to ease monetary policy when conditions require. Fiscal discipline is the right call for the long term as well ... While global conditions make it harder, we are strongly placed to deliver a surplus for 2012-13.

''Handing down a budget surplus this May will be good for the Australian economy, good for growth and good for jobs.''

Neither leader is famous for their economic management skills, yet both are talking the talk as the new political year opens.

Gillard is so far delivering more detail than is Abbott, but both are letting it be known that they know the economy is what matters most to voters.

According to Hughes, there is good reason why the Prime Minister is insistent on bringing the budget back into the black.

''The budget will be the biggest political issue for 2012,'' he says.

''Gillard has staked her future career on it being balanced. If it's not in surplus, it's game, set and match.

''She might be Prime Minister the next day, but it will be hollow.''

The year ahead might well see a Labor leadership challenge. It might see Abbott more conscious of being too negative; Wilkie walking away from the Government; or the Greens making more demands.

The country Independents will be harking louder about regional issues.

Yet in the end, it will again likely all come down to the economy and who is perceived as being able to manage it best.

But who knows what other surprises the dragon has in store?

Chris Johnson is Chief Political Correspondent for The Canberra Times