When Parliament resumes today, Prime Minister Julia Gillard must look and sound like a leader who is so confident in her government's direction that she scorns media speculation about her position.
It's a tough act to perform when that speculation in the media is reaching the stratosphere.
Today, however, she has a couple of factors working in her favour to ease the lame duck feeling.
One is the bounce in the latest Nielsen poll which shows support for her and the government increasing sharply. She must convert this into a sustainable trend, because Labor still trails the Coalition.
In a significant statement of confidence yesterday, she pointed to overcoming her tribulations before the next election.
''We do have a lot of hard work to do and if we do that hard work I believe we can win the election when it's held in 2013,'' she said.
The second factor that could work in her favour is the board meeting of the Reserve Bank. If it decides to cut interest rates, it would be the third successive downward movement.
The Big Four banks may even decide to pass on the cut in full, and not leave the government looking powerless, again.
While that would be good news for home owners and small businesses, the necessity for another rate cut would confirm the warnings that the economy is slowing and needs stimulation.
Gillard signalled again yesterday that this first session of Parliament will mark the start of a year-long debate on the Australian economy.
She is now talking about the ''new economy'' but the newest factor in the national economy is the stunning result that no net jobs were created last year. That is an appalling outcome for a government seeking to focus attention on its economic credentials, while slapping down Tony Abbott for proposing to withdraw hand-outs to the (ungrateful) car industry.
This issue is sparking tension in caucus where backbenchers yesterday questioned why there is no reciprocal obligation on business to treat workers fairly, instead of forcing them to train overseas workers who will make the Australians redundant when their jobs move offshore.
But it's what didn't happen at yesterday's caucus that will make Gillard happier. Labor MPs talked about national issues that did not revolve around Kevin Rudd.
Has she been able to put a lid on the leadership babble, for now at least?
At the special meeting on Sunday, Gillard gave her team a pep talk, telling them to be more disciplined and warning that leaking to media about party issues only assists the Opposition.
And the unexpected rise in the poll gives Team Gillard a lift as the parliamentary term begins for another tough year.
As the Prime Minister strives to exert her authority, she cannot afford to totally ignore the rumblings in caucus.
Meanwhile, in question time today, she must give a strong, confident performance, despite the ever-present threat that Abbott will claim the government is terminally split and therefore dysfunctional.
Ironically, what Rudd's backers want is for no talk of a spill before the Queensland election, and for Gillard to be judged on that performance.
They are confident she cannot turn around the slide and a desperate caucus will eventually consider returning to the MP they axed.
This reporter is on Twitter: @pjean01
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