It appears more and more likely that Julia Gillard's days as Prime Minister of Australia are numbered.
The talk - that has never really stopped since Gillard felled @KRuddMP - has now shifted from ''if'' to ''when''.
It's not a reassuring look to have senior cabinet ministers out on a daily basis telling us what an awesome leader Gillard is. And what an integrated team member Rudd is.
In truth, they probably need to do it. Question marks over Gillard's longevity are floating around like bubbles at a kid's birthday party. So of course the answers have to float back in response. But it's a damned if you do/don't equation.
Then there is, as always, the cold, hard, cranky reality of the polls. On Monday, Rudd out-performed Gillard as preferred leader in the Galaxy poll, 52 to 30. And in Tuesday's Newspoll, the Coalition hypothetically whipped Labor 54 to 46 in the two-party preferred stakes.
Tertiary Education Minister Chris Evans dismissed Monday's results as mere chatter. ''Polls come and go,'' he said. The problem is, so too do prime ministers. Don't forget June 2010 - when Rudd was dismissed, the two-party preferred digits were 53-47 to the Coalition.
So, cue: reports this week of Labor MPs seriously losing their Julia religion. Or as one factional boss told Fairfax this week, ''she's in trouble.''
To add to the dud vibe, there is the usual plethora of clusters to keep us all concerned. As Gillard and Abbott manufactured debates about the economy and the car industry, the Craig Thomson/ Health Services Union melange festered along and the tent embassy/Lobby protest fallout continued to fall. Gillard's best attempts with the high-vis vests, 3D copiers, university labs and set-piece speeches haven't been able to cut through the gloom. Even the Prime Minister's XI was rained off yesterday.
According to the expert insider fortune tellers, there are five timing options for coup No.2: Next week when Labor MPs get back to Parliament and realise there's no time like the present; not next week, but before the Queensland election, when MPs realise all hope is lost; after the Queensland election but before the budget; after the budget but before the end of May; and lastly, any other time.
Meanwhile, as Gillard struggles on, Rudd has had a veritable pogo stick in his step by comparison. Briefly in Australia this week between international commitments, he celebrated Chinese New Year, told the Russians - and the world - what to do about Syria and helped with the Queensland state election campaign, before jetting off to Munich to chat to Henry Kissinger about security.
On Wednesday, fronting the media for a short press conference, Rudd was full of that old Kevin-y chutzpah.
Ostensibly, Rudd was having the televised chat to boost the electoral chances of Brisbane MP Kate Jones, but everyone was tuned in with gusto to see what he might say about the leadership.
So Rudd kicked things off by talking world affairs. ''Before I move on to the local campaign, let me just say one or two things about developments in Syria ...'' Cue: collective cry of pain. With no detectable levels of self-consciousness, Rudd then took his sweet time singing the praises of Jones (''this one'') in his most avuncular style, before slamming Campbell Newman and company as if he were king of Queensland and calling Tony Abbott ''Captain Negative, Captain Trivial'' as if he were prime minister of Australia.
It's not surprising that the Kevin Rudd revival seems like a fait accompli. But in the headiness of the impending coup No.2, we shouldn't forget that he is the same Kevin Rudd of 2010. The same Kevin Rudd who couldn't run an office, let alone a government. We also shouldn't forget that if he comes back, he's going to have a serious case of the victory smugs.
In our rush to find a simple answer to our tough, tricky and often disappointing political landscape, Rudd looks more appealing than he really is. A bit like an ex-girl/boyfriend.
You know how it goes. You might be with someone new, but things aren't going so well and then you run into your ex. In the haze, you can't quite remember exactly why you broke up. It's comforting and familiar to see them.
So you find yourself uttering the dreaded lines.
''Hey! Have you been working out? You look great!''
The Gillard days may be moribund. But one thing's for sure, it's not that Rudd's been working out.
It's just that everything else hasn't.
Judith Ireland is a staff writer.
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