It's now clear that this is the budget that breaks Canberra's heart.

Brace yourself for a slump in consumer confidence and falling house prices.

Labor-leaning Canberra has feared for some time that Labor would emulate John Howard by taking a big bite out of the bureaucracy to balance the books.

But Labor values the work of the bureaucracy and would never engage in mindless slash and burn, so we were told.

But when Kevin Rudd came to power he immediately slashed tens of millions from DFAT as one of his very first actions.

Now Julia Gillard has made the goal of a wafer-thin surplus the most important priority of her government.

That means ''tough decisions'' but you know there is something suss about that theme when you see all the new spending in the budget.

But she must do something grand to win back the hearts of voters who give every indication of hating her.

Simply put, this budget could be the last throw of the dice for the PM. So business is backstabbed to give part of the mining tax revenue directly to working families.

Herein lies the delicate balancing act of Wayne Swan's fifth budget.

Gillard has broken another promise by scrapping the promised tax cuts for business.

Will voters forgive her for this in return for the cash splash of the school children's bonus?

They might see it as a genuine attempt to help with cost-of-living pressures. Or they could decide that she can't be trusted and that the extra money is a bribe to smooth the way for the introduction of the carbon tax.

Swan assured Australians yesterday that his cuts to programs would not slow economic growth. But he also pledged to make more cuts if, as widely feared, Australia is dragged down by Europe.

The Canberra-based public servants tipped to lose their jobs over the next three years should not expect any sympathy from the rest of Australia.

But they could have expected better protection under a ''Labor values'' budget particularly when three of Canberra's four federal reps are from the Labor Party.

Hopefully, the government is telling the truth when it says the workforce will be reduced by natural attrition. Canberra's federal representatives say the cuts would have been worse if they had not lobbied against them.

And they are correct to argue that the Rudd and Gillard governments have made significant investments in the ACT including the national institutions, the Majura Parkway and the Monaro Highway.

Tonight Tony Abbott gets his chance to tell the nation how he would balance the books. He is already committed to abolishing the Climate Change Department.

Ominously, the Coalition's Treasury spokesman Joe Hockey is very critical of Labor for allowing the public service to expand by more than 20,000 positions since 2007.

An incoming Coalition government is already promising to cut 12,000 public service jobs by attrition.

By the time Abbott is elected, that target might already be reached.