The Morrison government has lost ground with voters after pledging a sweeping round of personal income tax cuts, with the Coalition trailing Labor by 47 to 53 per cent in two-party terms in the wake of the federal budget.
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Prime Minister Scott Morrison has maintained his lead on key personal approval ratings but the government has fallen from the two-party result of 49 to 51 per cent in February.
The exclusive Ipsos poll to be published in The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age on Monday finds that Mr Morrison remains the preferred prime minister compared to Opposition Leader Bill Shorten, leading by 46 to 35 per cent, a similar gap to previous surveys.
When voters were asked to rate the respective leaders, 48 per cent approved of Mr Morrison's performance and 39 per cent disapproved, a fall of one percentage point in both measures.
This means Mr Morrison's net approval rating - the difference between those who approve and disapprove of his performance - was unchanged at 9 percentage points from the previous Ipsos poll in February.
Mr Shorten saw a significant fall in his approval rating from 40 per cent in February to 36 per cent this week, while his disapproval rating fell from 52 to 51 per cent.
As a result, the Opposition Leader's net approval rating deteriorated to minus 15 compared to minus 12 in the previous poll.
Mr Morrison had a lead of 48 to 38 per cent over Mr Shorten as preferred prime minister in the February survey and a lead of 46 to 35 per cent in the latest poll.
This result is in line with every Ipsos survey since the Liberal Party leadership spill last August, when Mr Morrison was elected party leader over Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton.
Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull enjoyed a lead of 57 to 30 per cent against Mr Shorten in the Ipsos survey published on July 22 last year, before the Longman byelection and the internal unrest over energy policy that helped trigger the leadership spill.
The latest result in two-party terms suggests a nationwide swing to Labor of about 3 per cent since the last election, enough for it to gain more than a dozen seats, but the swings are expected to vary widely due to local factors.
The result of 53 to 47 per cent is based on preference flows at the last election. Ipsos found the same result when it asked respondents were asked how they would allocate their preferences in 2019.
The survey of 1200 respondents was conducted from April 3 to 6, in the days after last Tuesday's federal budget, and has a margin of error of 2.9 per cent.
Ipsos found Labor had a primary vote of 34 per cent, a result unchanged from the last election and considered unusually low compared to published and internal Labor polling in recent months.
Ipsos found the Greens had a primary vote of 13 per cent, much higher than the party's result of about 10 per cent at the last election.
The strong flow of second preferences from Greens voters to the Labor Party gives Labor a significant lead over the Coalition in two-party terms.
The poll found the Coalition had a primary vote of 37 per cent, down from 38 per cent in the survey published in February and substantially below the nationwide result of 42 per cent at the last election.
