Half a decade on from the first passenger trips on light rail, Canberra is still locked in what seems to be an interminable debate about the future of the network.
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Another election campaign looms - if it hasn't already begun - with light rail as the key divergence between Labor and the Greens, and the Canberra Liberals.
But a new five-year analysis of light rail's impact on the Gungahlin to the city corridor raises some thorny questions for opponents of extending it further to Woden.
The report notes surveys that showed 43 per cent of passengers on light rail have never previously used the bus network in Canberra. This is significant.
People are regularly travelling 1.2 kilometres to catch a light rail service, with the median travel distance of 600 metres. That's better than the rule of thumb for bus users: they're thought to be prepared to walk 400 metres.
Light rail has also prompted developers to lodge plans and get their shovels ready: more than $2 billion worth of work has been approved or is being assessed for the suburbs serviced by light rail.
Even motorists have benefited from the project. Traffic volumes on Northbourne Avenue are lower by 18 per cent now than they were in 2016. A remarkable effort given the increase in population along the road.
Light rail opponents will struggle to deny that more people want to catch light rail than the bus, it has supported urban densification, cut traffic, and, albeit indirectly, supported the creation of more jobs.
The price tag for the light rail extension to Woden will, at first glance, appear frightfully high, but the government has an opportunity to demonstrate the cost is an investment in a much wider suite of things than a slick tube carrying people about on rails.
Debating the future of light rail versus a bus-based alternative as though it's just about transport would be a very disingenuous exercise.
Getting the transport corridor right is about getting the surrounding housing and commercial development right and it's about getting greater densification in a land-locked city right. It's got to be part of the same conversation. The debate is about future nature of the capital, not just how we move around it.
Proponents of light rail would need to keep making the case the benefits of light rail - made clear with 20-20, five-year hindsight - are unique.
Building light rail to Woden is undoubtedly a complex and expensive operation.
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To make a truly convincing case, light rail opponents will need to do more than just point to the cost, even if they believe it is exorbitant.
Evidence on land value uplift for bus rapid transit globally is mixed, though a 2020 meta-analysis published in the peer-reviewed Land Use Policy found newly opened bus systems have a delayed uplift in values compared to rail systems and value rise estimates "vary greatly".
It is up to the light rail skeptics to explain how bus transit would reduce traffic, encourage investment and bring more people to public transport.
Otherwise, they will appear to be simply promoting a solution for the problems of today while light rail offers more into the future.
Jasper Lindell
Jasper Lindell joined The Canberra Times in 2018. He is a Legislative Assembly reporter, covering ACT politics and government. He also writes about development, transport, heritage, local history, literature and the arts, as well as contributing to the Times' Panorama magazine. He was previously a Sunday Canberra Times reporter.
Jasper Lindell joined The Canberra Times in 2018. He is a Legislative Assembly reporter, covering ACT politics and government. He also writes about development, transport, heritage, local history, literature and the arts, as well as contributing to the Times' Panorama magazine. He was previously a Sunday Canberra Times reporter.
