Whatever happens, Mr Turnbull told Australians on Monday something they have long known: his leadership lives upon the permission of its most disaffected, rabid fringe, and his protection from them by a praetorian guard of senior conservatives.

This defining truth of the Turnbull government has turned a promising political leader who became Prime Minister with wide public approval into the diminished and drawn looking man who announced a backdown on emissions targets.

Looking almost held up by Treasurer Scott Morrison and Environment and Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg, who were at his side, the Prime Minister bought time by succumbing to his predecessor Tony Abbott's ruthlessly effective campaign to wreck and remake the Coalition's energy policy.

Whether Mr Dutton, Senator Mathias Cormann and others guarding Mr Turnbull flinch as poll numbers dive at the dysfunction will matter only so much in future polls. A leadership change will likely rearrange the spread of voter punishment across the country: less in Queensland if Mr Dutton ascends, less elsewhere if he doesn't.

There are guilty parties outside the Liberal party as federal parliament proves unable to legislate even the most bare-minimum, economically harmless national energy policy the Coalition could come up with. Labor has helped run the NEG aground by exploiting its politics as well as Mr Abbott, who is yet more shameless in his posturing and political self-interest. The policy was so paltry in its emissions cut ambition that it was unlikely to ever win Greens support, but again they have proven willing to let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

Mr Abbott is at greatest fault for letting his thirst for political vengeance and relevance shred his party's electoral standing, divide it along battelines of his own making, and leave Australia facing yet more years of energy uncertainty. As Kevin Rudd before him, his destabilising efforts may return him to political good fortune. Unlike Labor's leadership changes, the Coalition's would offer less protection against electoral annihilation.

Federal politics must move beyond the meek self-interest that has been the force of creation and destruction for governments since 2010. Politicians, if they are to regain the trust and respect of their voters, need to ignore the will-o'-the-wisp of polling and remember that the weeks leading up to a federal election are what truly focus the minds of voters.

They'll judge on a government's entire record, not the previous week's. Had Mr Turnbull stared down Mr Abbott's band of rebels on the NEG, it would have been to his credit. As it stands, the Prime Minister has forfeited his authority and legacy to his predecessor. He, and whoever leads the Coalition, will be judged accordingly, whenever voters have their final say.