NSW Nationals leader John Barilaro has claimed an emphatic victory in the marginal seat of Monaro, winning all booths in the electorate for the first time. His Labor opponent Bryce Wilson conceded defeat after little more than two hours of counting.
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But as Nationals supporters celebrated in Queanbeyan, the party was also struggling to hold on in other key seats around the state on Saturday night.
The Deputy Premier entered his victory party to the tune of the Rocky theme song, before telling his supporters he was "humbled" by the result. Late on Saturday, estimates from party officials showed a swing of about eight per cent in the Deputy Premier's favour. If the eight per cent margin proves correct, it would push Monaro into safe seat territory. In 2015, Mr Barilaro won the seat on a margin of 2.5 per cent.
Earlier on Saturday, Mr Barilaro predicted he would retain his seat and increase his margin, reporting a positive reaction from constituents across all booths. Shortly after the counting began, a relaxed Mr Barilaro told supporters at the Queanbeyan Kangarooo Rugby League Football Club: "I'm winning booths I've never won before, don't stress."
Mr Barilaro did most of his campaign travelling as Nationals leader in January and February to stay home in March and defend his seat.
"I pride myself on the work that I do as a local member first and foremost before Deputy Premier or leader of the Nationals," he said.
He attributed his victory to his work ethic and passion, explaining "I'm a workaholic".
Mr Wilson, a former school teacher, had been campaigning in Monaro since 2016. As polls closed, the County Labor candidate said he could not predict the result.
"I think John had, to be honest, a strong start to the day, but there's definitely been a move back to us this afternoon," he said at Jerrabomberra Public School.
"I'm not naive to the challenge," he said. "Marginal seat politics is very hard."
Before polls closed on Saturday, Mr Barilaro said there had been good reports from other marginal seats the Nationals were contesting in the state. Five of the NSW Coalition's most marginal seats were held by the Nationals.
As of 9.30pm on Saturday, the party looked set to lose the far western seats of Barwon and Murray to the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party. But officials said Tweed and Lismore would be retained. The party was also hopeful of squeaking over the line in Upper Hunter and Dubbo in very tight contests. Despite hopes the party would win Ballina, the northern NSW seat looked set to go back to the Greens.
Mr Barilaro acknowledged some of the results were "concerning" and said he took "full responsibility" as leader. He said the drought had hurt the party in seats such as Barwon and Murray.
Earlier on Saturday, the Deputy Premier was upbeat about the Coalition's chances overall, saying he thought the government would be returned with a majority.
"What's surprising today, there's no anger. In my mind, there's no mood for change," Mr Barilaro said.
The NSW Deputy Premier said the message to his federal colleagues out of the state election result was "start focussing on the stuff that matters."
Monaro takes in the city of Queanbeyan, just over the border from Canberra. It extends to Cooma, the NSW snowfields and country townships of Bungendore and Braidwood.
