Victorian Liberals fear the funding row between the federal government and Catholic schools looms as a big threat to the Coalition’s chances at November’s state election.
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With 80 days until the state poll, senior party figures say they are more worried by the potential campaign by the powerful Catholic schools sector in Melbourne than “brand damage” caused by the dumping of Malcolm Turnbull as prime minister.
The Catholic schools lobby has been campaigning against the federal government’s “Gonski 2.0” proposals for education funding reform, arguing that it unfairly strips money from the sector.
Fear of a Catholic electoral backlash prompted Victorian Liberals education spokeman Tim Smith to attack his federal colleague Simon Birmingham this month.
But with the removal of Mr Birmingham from the Education portfolio in the wake of Scott Morrison’s ascent to the Prime Ministership, it is widely expected that a deal will soon be struck to allay the Catholics’ concern and guarantee ongoing funding for their schools.
New Education Minister Dan Tehan, himself a Victorian Catholic, has reportedly been in touch with Catholic Education Melbourne in an effort to end the funding war.
But peace between the powerful lobby group and the Liberal Party cannot come quickly enough for the state’s MPs, with senior figures conceding they have been alarmed by the feedback from parents over the Gonski deadlock and fearing their state election campaign could become collateral damage.
The willingness of Catholic Education Melbourne to get involved in elections is especially troubling for Coalition strategists after the group mounted a short campaign of “robo-calls” to voters in the Batman byelection in March, urging them to shun the Greens’ candidate for the seat.
Political parties also fear the Catholic sector’s most simple but effective method of making its displeasure felt; the letter from the school to parents sent home with children.
“They won the Batman byelection for Labor and if we don’t get this [funding question] sorted out, every Catholic school kid in the state will be sent home with a letter telling their parents to vote for [Victorian Labor leader] Daniel Andrews,” one senior Liberal told The Age.
About 100,000 Victorian families send children to Catholic schools, according to Catholic Education Melbourne.
The group’s chief executive Stephen Elder, who was was not available to comment for this article, has also made it clear that his organisation might make life difficult for Victorian Labor too, over the question of state government funding for building and maintenance work for Victoria’s Catholic schools.
In the wake of May's state budget Mr Elder said the lack of money allocated for capital works for Catholic school in the next four years was a "snub".
“We look forward to the state government rectifying the shortfall in capital works expenditure in the lead up to the November state election,” Mr Elder said at the time.
State Education James Merlino said the Labor government had provided $120 million to non-government schools over the past four years and would have more to say on school funding before the election.
“We are also continuing to work with the non-government sector on future funding needs. We will be making more education announcements in coming months,” Mr Merlino said.
