Peter Dutton would lose his seat of Dickson if he did not challenge Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, according to a leading Queensland political expert, but voters in the north Brisbane electorate remain divided on whether the former police officer should make a bid for the Lodge.
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Griffith University political scientist Paul Williams said if Mr Dutton did not contest Mr Turnbull for the leadership, he would lose the next election.
“If he sits on his hands and plays good little boy he will lose his job, it’s a certainty,” Dr Williams said.
“He’s put it all on the line because with the current arithmetic, what we’ve seen in the polls, the swing nationally is horrendous.
“It’s less horrendous in Queensland, but it’s still bad.
“They are going to lose at least six, possibly seven or eight if they don’t do anything.
“Dutton would be the first to fall over.”
Dr Williams said the best time for a change in leadership was when it would cause the least damage to your side and the most damage to the other side.
“If you’re facing the barrel of certain defeat then a leadership change no matter how traumatic is a good idea,” he said.
“The idea is to not have a spill so close to an election, but sometimes, in this case, it would be foolish not to call an election immediately.
“Choose cabinet, bed it down for a month and call an election.
“If he [Mr Dutton] waited until May he would find himself in the same position Turnbull is today .... divided, directionless.”
Dr Williams said despite Dickson being marginal Mr Dutton could likely retain it if he was prime minister.
“He’s the candidate who suits his electorate,” he said.
“Turnbull has no appeal outside the inner northern suburbs of Brisbane.”
The prospect of a Dutton prime ministership was met with mixed reviews in Dickson when Fairfax Media visited on Monday.
Brisbane Northside Produce owner Andrew Merritt said he rated Mr Dutton, but not as Prime Minister.
“I don’t think that’s the best role for him,” he said.
“I think he’s one of a good team, don’t think he should be the prime minister.”
A Dickson resident, Mr Merritt said he did not agree with mid-term changes in leadership.
“I would still vote for him, I agree with their (LNP) overall concept, the country has to be run as a business,” he said.
“I think he [Dutton] is excellent for this electorate, I see him as doing his job well.”
Mr Merritt said his customers often gave an indication of what they thought of Mr Dutton and it was pretty evenly divided.
“It is marginal, there is no doubt about that,” he said.
“I really think he’s got popular support in the work that he does, not as his own personality.”
There was more enthusiasm from Hallelujah Shoeworks Albany Creek manager Colin Grant.
Mr Grant said if the LNP believed Mr Dutton was the better candidate, then he was probably was.
“They know what’s better for Australia,” he said.
“They’re all from one party and they’re trying to get what’s best out of their party.
“So if they want him, there’s no reason why not.”
Mr Grant said the fact Mr Dutton had been the Federal MP for Dickson since 2001 gave him confidence.
“He’s never come by [the shop] but he seems to be quite easy to listen to,” he said.
“When you listen to people on the radio and the TV and you get bored, but when he’s speaking he is very easy to listen to.”
While Mr Grant cannot vote in the division of Dickson, he said if he could vote for Mr Dutton he definitely would as he would love to have his business's local MP be the prime minister.
With such a divisive figure as its MP, and given Mr Dutton held the seat with just a 1.6 per cent margin, both Labor and the Greens have been aggressive in their campaigns for the seat.
Labor candidate Ali France said a lot of people in the electorate would feel let down and ignored by Mr Dutton if he challenged the Prime Minister.
“He’s spent more time creating headlines in Canberra and furthering his own career than he has representing the people of Dickson,” she said.
“Dickson is a marginal seat and residents will have a clear choice at the next election – someone who will fight for them or someone who is fighting to further their own career.”
In a statement, Greens candidate Benedict Coyne said Mr Dutton may well be wielding the knife in a last-ditch attempt to save his marginal seat.
“I nominated for Dickson to ensure that Dutton was not reelected,” he said.
“That resolve has not changed and is growing stronger every day with the increasing support we are receiving, both within the electorate and around the country."
