The historic first expansion of Legislative Assembly members is likely to lead to the same government, with minor party and independent candidates advised not to give up their day jobs, a veteran electoral analyst says.
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Dr Malcolm Mackerras says so-called "preference whisperer" Glenn Druery is wasting his time – and clients' money – trying to get minor candidates elected under the ACT system.
The Australian Catholic University visiting research fellow said the notional position from 2012 was 12 Liberal, 12 Labor and one Greens, but the fifth member in each electorate could shift.
"I wouldn't be surprised if the Greens finish up doing very well in the election, and if they do very well it is quite possible they they will end up getting five out of 25," he said.
"Though the probability is the share of the seats the Greens get will be less than their share of the vote.
"I would say the Green or Greens would have the balance of power, but if that's not the case I think the Liberal Party would win the election."
If Labor wins a fifth straight term, it will become the longest-serving Labor government in the country.
The outgoing seven-member central electorate of Molonglo has traditionally been the most favourable for minor parties or independents, always returning at least one MLA from outside the major two parties.
The five-member quota, or percentage of votes which guaranteed a candidate election, was 16.7 per cent. Molonglo had a quota of about 12.5 per cent.
Dr Mackerras said he was amused to see Mr Druery, who made his name helping micro-party candidates such as the Motoring Enthusiast Party's Ricky Muir get elected to the Senate, offering his services to independent and minor-party ACT candidates.
"Both the old and the new systems are essentially good for all three parties – I don't expect anyone else to get elected [next year]," he said.
"This system does not permit gaming the system in any way."
ABC election analyst Antony Green said this year that if the Greens increased their vote from 2012 they would have a strong chance of winning three seats and retaining the balance of power.
Dr Mackerras said if former Greens MLA Caroline Le Couteur stood in the central electorate of Yerrabi she would probably be elected.
Candidates must be ACT residents but do not have to live in the electorate they stand for.
