Even Scott Morrison, with his abundant self-belief, couldn't have imagined that on today's anniversary of his seizing the prime ministership, he'd be winging his way to France for a G7 meeting, where Australia has observer status for the first time.
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A grim brand of luck - the spectacular collapse of two Liberal prime ministers - and a dash of cunning brought Morrison the top job. His own campaigning skills and Labor's faults enabled him to keep it.
In the next three years, it might all go to hell in a handbasket. But after 12 months in the position, Morrison looks the strong leader, clearly in charge, with few constraints.
Three months after the "miracle" victory, we're seeing how the campaigning Prime Minister has morphed into the governing one, while remaining the campaigner.
In the election, it was said Morrison looked like he was running for "mayor of Australia". It's an accurate characterisation in part.
The PM who'll hobnob at the G7 and soon sup at a White House state dinner has his feet firmly planted in the local community centre, his ear tuned to his "quiet Australians", the people he asserts are alienated because the "Canberra bubble" too often has ignored them.
We've only to observe what he's done and hear how he talks. Setting up "Services Australia". A pledge to bust "congestion" - in traffic, regulations, the bureaucracy. Badgering public servants to improve delivery. Moving towards stopping plastic waste exports. An inquiry into the NDIS. He dog-whistles to his "quiet Australians" - not in a racist way, but through deriding the "bubble" and publicly putting the bureaucrats in their place.
Morrison looks from the ground up. It's all about Mr and Mrs Average from the Sutherland Shire. Indeed, that's him and Jenny, although their address is Kirribilli House.
After he became PM, Morrison moved quickly to define himself to the public as one of them. But can he maintain the guise of separation from the Canberra elite, given he's its most powerful member? Monash University political scientist Paul Strangio says: "It will take political and image-making dexterity by the prime minister to sustain the idea that he is somehow distinct from that 'bubble'."
There's been much claimed about Morrison's lack of an "agenda" beyond the now-legislated tax cuts, but it's notable that since the election he's organised "deep dives" into policy areas, as well as having in train various reviews.
He gets together the minister, public servants and interested or qualified backbenchers. The sessions run from one to four hours; Morrison stays through them. Topics have included recycling, youth suicide, veterans' mental health, the NDIS, water, and aged care.
"Relative to his two predecessors, he has a much better idea of what he wants to do - he's a better long-term planner than [they were]," says someone familiar with all three of these Liberal PMs.
Former Liberal staffer David Gazard, a close personal friend, describes Morrison as a "pragmatic incrementalist - he will get what he can get in areas he wants to go to".
The questions hang. Is the incrementalist capable of implementing major reforms that the country will need? Will he make a substantial entry in the history book of Australian prime ministers?
Morrison is methodical, always political, perennially in action. "He would be the kind of person you'd expect to have a job list on his desk," says a minister. "I think he's conscious of the short time frame of the federal cycle. He's task-oriented - he wants to get stuff done and move on to the next project."
Ever the family man, Morrison has his nuclear political family. Frontbenchers in his innermost circle are Stuart Robert and Alex Hawke, his factional mates from way back, and Ben Morton, who travelled on his campaign plane. Chief of staff John Kunkel and incoming departmental head Phil Gaetjens are close confidants.
Those who work with Morrison stress how focused he is. A close observer describes his responses to problems. "He doesn't dwell too much on pondering the entrails. He says 'how do we fix this?' His temperament is his biggest asset - he's unflappable. He's confident in his ability to handle the situation he confronts." This confidence reveals at times an arrogant side.
His natural instinct is for command and control, but this operates subtly in managing his ministers. He gives them rein in their own areas, but tells them not to freelance outside their remits. He exhorts backbenchers to shut up publicly, but can't make them; they're speaking out on issues, but not sniping destructively.
In looking at Morrison's positive first year it's easy to forget how things can turn. Strangio identifies three risks: the party's right could decide to "seize the moment" and make divisive demands; the electorate could, over time, become frustrated with Morrison's tendency to incrementalism, interpreting it as inertia; or, conversely, Morrison might eventually surrender to an impulse to which all prime ministers are prone - to leave some big imprint, and thereby plunge himself into political choppy waters.
Morrison has found himself spending considerable time on foreign affairs, including the somewhat fraught Pacific step-up. Central in his current preoccupations is policy on China, which covers complex responses in resisting that country's various encroachments on Australian sovereignty - it's far from being all about trade.
But the most immediate worry is the economy. Will the "global headwinds" turn gale force, requiring more government stimulus and threatening the surplus? With wage growth sluggish and interest rates already cut twice since the election, the Reserve Bank prods the government to help with the load.
So far, Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg are holding back and hoping that the tax package will do enough. The quiet Australians, the people who rode with Morrison's promises about ensuring good economic management, are watching, quietly.
- Michelle Grattan is a press gallery journalist and former editor of The Canberra Times. She is a professorial fellow at the University of Canberra and writes for The Conversation, where this column appears.