Queensland lies at the heart of Australia's economic recovery and Labor's political resurgence, shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers will tell a forum on Thursday.
Labor won just six out of 30 seats in the Sunshine State at the May 2019 federal election.
Dr Chalmers will tell a Committee for the Economic Development of Australia event in Townsville his home state will be crucial to Labor taking government at the next federal election.
"In the last 50 years federal Labor has never formed majority government without holding at least one-third of the seats in Queensland," Dr Chalmers will say.
"By this measure, we need to win at least another four seats in Queensland at the 2022 election.
"A pretty simple point: there is no road to victory that doesn't include travelling up the Bruce Highway or across western Queensland on the Warrego Highway."
Dr Chalmers said an underperforming national economy could not be turned around without Queensland.
"We need a more substantial growth strategy for Queensland in Canberra," he will say.
A third of Queensland's economic output comes from regional cities such as Townsville, with four out of five goods leaving the state via regional ports.
"The commonwealth government should be in the business of nurturing and enabling these regional economies: investing in local skills, local jobs and local infrastructure."
Dr Chalmers is also expected to weigh into the debate on the future of resource industries, with Labor under pressure from the environmental lobby and Greens to take a tougher stance against fossil fuels.
"There is no prouder Queenslander than me. That's why I resent the dumb caricature put about by people like (Nationals senator) Matt Canavan, who pretends Queenslanders don't care about climate change," he says.
"Or that we don't understand the possibilities of cheaper, cleaner energy for families and businesses.
"Of course, there are a range of views in Queensland as there are elsewhere. But it's not beyond us to find a way to promote new investment in the renewable industry without abandoning our traditional strengths in mining and the jobs and communities it supports."
Australian Associated Press