Andrew Barr has for years talked up the ACT economy like a boastful parent.
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The Chief Minister and Treasurer gloats that under his stewardship, the territory economy has experienced prolonged periods of nation-leading economic growth.
The unemployment rate is lower here than anywhere in the nation. International exports - particularly in the tourism and international student markets - are booming. This historically one-paced public service town is rapidly diversifying.
The territory's economic success has long been Barr's political trump card, his shield against attacks and his rebuttal to every critique. When questions are asked about escalating debt levels and skyrocketing rates, Barr stubbornly pivots to those headline economic indicators.
The economy's success has been his, and his governments, success. It has been their collective comfort blanket, something to wrap themselves up in when critics close in.
Those days might soon be over.
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While the ACT enters the coronavirus-driven economic crisis in a stronger position than probably any other state or territory, it almost certainly won't escape the financial suffering and mass jobs losses certain to sweep the nation in the coming months.
The period of relative prosperity Canberra has enjoyed in recent years will end amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
Barr has this week adopted increasingly alarming language - "wartime", "once-in-a-century crisis" - as he attempts to explain the economic and social challenge confronting the territory.
"Grim" is not a word one would have ever expected Barr to use when describing the fortunes of the ACT economy.
To chart the chief minister's comments on the threat of coronavirus over the past five weeks is to see how rapidly the situation has escalated.
He highlighted the scale of the looming threat when he handed down the mid-year budget on February 14, describing it as the greatest "economic shock the country had experienced since the global financial crisis". The mid-year budget included some spending measures, but there was no sense that a wider economic stimulus package was needed.
Even as recently as March 10, the ACT government appeared confident that its program of planned spending would be enough amid the "fairly bleak" economic outlook.
A day later, Mr Barr said the government was considering a short-term stimulus package. Three days later, he confirmed one would be delivered.
By Monday, March 16 - the day the first nation-wide ban on mass gatherings came into effect - the ACT government was racing to piece together a multi-stage "economic survival package" to help support the territory through a looming crisis.
At that point, businesses, particularly those in the tourism and hospitality sectors, were pleading for help as the real and present threat of closures and mass job losses become apparent.
Some, including ACT opposition leader Alistair Coe, have felt Barr has been too slow to act. Every state and territory was busily rolling out their own stimulus measures by the time the ACT's rescue package was announced on Friday afternoon.
Barr has brushed aside those accusations, saying his government needed to take time to consult with stakeholders.
The first tranche of the multi-stage package attempts to deliver support as quickly as possible to those who need it the most. The $150 rate rebate will ease pressure on low-income homeowners, while public housing tenants will welcome the $250 rental support payment and $200 energy bill concession.
Barr is determined to save as many jobs as possible amid the inevitable downturn. That makes measures to support small businesses and keep workers employed crucial.
The package includes rebates for owners of commercial properties valued below $2 million and interest free deferrals of payroll tax for business up to a threshold of $10 million.
Businesses in the hospitality, creative arts and entertainment industries which rent their premise will get a six-month waiver on payroll tax, as well as a waiver on food registration and licensing fees. Small business will also get a $750 rebate to help with energy bills.
Will the measures be enough to keep those businesses afloat, and their staff employed in the short-term? Time will tell.
The first wave of stimulus doesn't include full commercial waivers, which some industry groups and landlords had hoped for. Their arguments will only strengthen if businesses start to close because revenue has dried up, but bills keep arriving.
Barr has been clear that Friday's package is only the start. There will be more measures include in June's budget, and further stimulus packages after that. There's an ACT election to be contested on October 17, although that seems to be the furthest thing from anyone's mid right now.
The real challenge is only just beginning.
The ACT's age of economic prosperity is almost certainly over. Can Barr limit the damage?
- For information on COVID-19, please go to the ACT Health website or the federal Health Department's website.
- You can also call the Coronavirus Health Information Line on 1800 020 080
- If you have serious symptoms, such as difficulty breathing, call Triple Zero (000)
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