Chief Minister Andrew Barr says there is "no prospect" of large crowd gatherings - including at sporting, public and cultural events - until the COVID-19 pandemic has passed.
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Mr Barr has also issued a dire predication for Canberra's international tourism economy, saying he expected the market would be completely wiped out for "many years" unless a vaccine was found.
However there was some positive news for domestic travelers, with Mr Barr hinting that some travel and interstate border restrictions might be eased at the end of winter.
The chief minister, along with senior ACT treasury and tourism officials, gave evidence via telephone on Friday morning to the ACT Legislative Assembly committee probing the government's handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
Mr Barr revealed to the committee that 10,000 Canberra businesses had applied to access the federal government's JobKeeper wage subsidy scheme.
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The figure equates to about one-third of all businesses in the ACT, highlighting just how widespread the economic damage from the pandemic has proven to be.
Mr Barr said the scale of the damage to the ACT' budget bottom line was still being determined.
But said the hit would be "very significant", with revenue from the commonwealth - through GST receipts - and its own taxes falling dramatically.
Another traditional money spinner for the ACT government, land sales revenue, would also be well down this year, he said.
The tourism industry has effectively ground to a halt because of border restrictions and travel bans introduced to slow the spread of coronavirus.
Mr Barr told the committee that he had addressed tourism industry leaders on Friday morning, delivering the "frank assessment" that they should have "no expectations" of any international tourism for "many years" because of the need to keep the border shut.
"This situation will remain at an international level, I expect, for the duration of the pandemic. It is unlikely that any effective suppression and elimination strategy of the virus in Australia could succeed whilst having any open international border," he said.
Federal tourism minister Simon Birmingham this week said there was no guarantees that international travel would be allowed this year.
Mr Barr said the best "hope" for tourism operators was the possibility that domestic travel restrictions could be eased, possibility as soon as the start of spring.
But even when restrictions start to be eased, which could happen as soon as four weeks' time, Mr Barr said there "no prospect" of allowing mass public gatherings until the coronavirus pandemic has passed.
"[There will be] no major events, no crowds at football matches, you will not be able to hold arts and entertainment events with any significant number of people in attendance," he said.
"I suspect that will be the case until the pandemic dies out or a vaccine is developed. The risk associated with the gathering of large numbers of people would just be too great."
Prime Minister Scott Morrison's national cabinet this week agreed to review the restrictions which have crippled the Australian economy in four weeks time, with a view to possibly lifting some of the measures. The federal government wants to boost the capacity for testing and contract tracing before restrictions are lifted.
At Friday's hearing, Mr Barr said there was "some likelihood" that restrictions would be wound back after the review.
But he said the changes wouldn't be drastic. For example, the ban on gatherings of more than two people might be relaxed to allow groups of 10 to meet.
- For information on COVID-19, please go to the ACT Health website or the federal Health Department's website.
- You can also call the Coronavirus Health Information Line on 1800 020 080
- If you have serious symptoms, such as difficulty breathing, call Triple Zero (000)
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