Greenhouse gas emissions could again rise in the ACT after the territory achieves a 100 per cent renewable electricity supply if rapid action is not taken to curb transport emissions, a new government report has warned.
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The report, the ACT Greenhouse Gas Inventory 2018-19, found transport emissions were the single largest source of pollution in the territory, and had increased by 1.6 per cent from 2017-18 to 2018-19.
The report found there had been an 18 per cent decrease in total emissions in the territory from the previous year, dropping from 3129 kilotonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent to 2568 kilotonnes.
ACT emissions in the last financial year were 13 per cent lower than an adjusted 1990 baseline level of emissions.
The switch to 100 per cent renewable electricity generation will mean the territory will meet its target of a 40 per cent emissions reduction on 1990 levels by 2020, a spokesperson for the Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development directorate said.
Transport emissions made up 41 per cent of total emissions, followed by electricity (31 per cent), gas (14 per cent), industrial processes (9 per cent) and waste (3 per cent), the report said.
Despite a growing population, the amount of carbon dioxide equivalent emitted for each person fell from 7.52 tonnes in 2017-18 to 6.07 tonnes in the last financial year.
The report found there was a "serious risk" the territory's emissions could rise after its electricity supply was 100 per cent renewable.
"At that point, road transport and natural gas emissions would almost certainly account for over 80 per cent of total ACT emissions, exclusive of [land use emissions]," the report said.
"The ACT's Climate Change Strategy 2019-2025 clearly acknowledges the challenges which transport and gas combustion emissions present. Continuing the decline in ACT emissions will depend on rapid implementation of the array of measures set out in the strategy."
Although per capita fuel energy consumption has remained "virtually unchanged" for six years, population growth has seen fuel consumption rise.
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Since 2012-13, total fuel use has grown 12 per cent while fuel greenhouse gas emissions have grown by 14 per cent in the same period, a difference driven by an increase in diesel use, which has a higher carbon element and therefore a worse pollutant.
"What this comparison shows is that either, firstly, the greater efficiency of diesel engines compared with petrol (spark ignition) engines is insufficient to offset the higher specific emissions of diesel fuel, or, secondly, vehicles are on average are becoming larger and less fuel efficient, so that the average fuel efficiency of the fleet has deteriorated, notwithstanding the switch to diesel. It is likely that both factors are contributing," the report said.
The ACT government's climate change strategy, released last year, includes car-free days and targets for shifting more car journeys to public transport or active travel.
Electricity emissions fell by 41 per cent from 1468 kilotonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, the standard unit of measurement of carbon footprints, to 863 kilotonnes between 2017-18 and the last financial year.
Wind generation grew from 23 per cent to 43 per cent of the territory's electrical energy flow in the same period.