Make no mistake: while the political rhetoric insists that recovering from the pandemic is their sole focus, all Australian politicians still have the next election in mind - and not just the back of their mind. Even if they wanted to focus solely on the job at hand, they can't escape public opinion polls, such as the latest federal Newspoll.
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Political commentator Peter Brent summarises the message of the poll as "the government [enjoying] a wartime leader's ratings, but line-ball support in a hypothetical election contest". In many ways that contrast has been the lesson of the last seven years of Australian politics, since Bill Shorten became opposition leader. The actual figures this time were a 68 per cent satisfaction rating for Scott Morrison, and a huge 58 per cent to 28 per cent lead over Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister. Yet instead of that translating into a comfortable two-party-preferred lead for the Coalition over Labor, the major parties were tied 50-50 on the back of primary figures of the Coalition at 41 per cent, Labor at 36 per cent and the Greens at 12 per cent.
The former is explicable. Incumbency is a huge advantage for governments, both federal and state, at a time of national crisis. But the sticky party preference figures are somewhat counter-intuitive. Surely incumbency and a good story to tell would lead to a jump in support for the government over the opposition? How can this divergence be explained?
The starting point is an explanation of Scott Morrison's good numbers.
The huge advantage of incumbency begins with the fact that it is the government which is pulling the levers of office. The opposition is standing by as an observer, while the minor parties seem almost totally superfluous.
The decisions have been tough ones, but they have been the government's to make, with the procedural assistance of the national cabinet. The government has had the advantage of bipartisan support and generous allowance from parts of the community usually inclined to be more critical, including the trade union movement.
For all his big numbers, the Prime Minister is still seen as a party leader - and his party has plenty of baggage.
The Prime Minister has enjoyed wall-to-wall media coverage during the pandemic. Any political operative will tell you that that predominance in coverage is something money can't buy. He is portrayed, rightly, as the man in charge.
While to start with there were many tricky issues, the successful flattening of the COVID-19 curve means that in recent weeks he has had a good story to tell - a story of success almost unmatched around the world. His confidence has grown. This has enabled him to overcome his stuttering start to the year during the bushfire crisis. He is rehabilitated. Undoubtedly the economic story will be testing in the months to come, but for the moment the community is at least giving him and the government an A for effort in most regards.
Leadership style is often a matter of taste. Different styles have been offered as an explanation for the variations in the responses of the eight state and territory leaders. But by and large they all seem to have done well too.
Some people are attracted to strong leaders, while others prefer a softer, more consultative style. Morrison's leadership style is quite different to those of most of our premiers and chief ministers. Ultimately his reception may boil down to taste and partisan politics.
He is now coming over quite well, taking advantage of his time in the sun and demonstrating that he is a capable person. He still remains prone to verbosity and straying from the point. He also has a tendency to hector, most recently in regard to aged care home management and previously in regard to school attendance.
Morrison has also benefited by comparison with the performance of some international leaders. He has probably squared the ledger with Jacinda Ardern of New Zealand, though they still have very different leadership styles. As our media is still Anglo-centric, Australians mostly see US President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Again, taste in leadership styles varies, but the bombast of those two, plus the much greater difficulties their nations are facing compared to Australia, puts the Australian Prime Minister in a better light.
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All these factors may explain Morrison's great "wartime leader" numbers; but what of the neck-and-neck party contest?
For all his big numbers, the Prime Minister is still seen as a party leader - and his party has plenty of baggage. Labor voters see many economic policies they can support emerging from this government's approach to the crisis, but they also recognise the remaining hurt in the community, and the unfairness of many of the exclusions from financial support.
Party contests are all about teams, and the government's team remains uneven. Some, such as Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, are strong performers, but others, such Education Minister Dan Tehan and Government Services Minister Stuart Robert, don't inspire the same confidence. The occasional forays into the limelight made by those of the right wing, such as Peter Dutton, remind voters of the fragility of the Liberal Party.
Albanese should be happy with the party contest numbers, even though he wouldn't be human if he wasn't rocked by his personal popularity gap with Morrison.
Both leaders know it is still game on as far as the next election is concerned in 2022. The changing economic terrain will be a huge test for the government over the next year or two. There will be a lot of bad economic news and financial tragedy for the community to digest.
Coupled with that will be the welcome resumption of Australian democracy from its enforced hibernation.
- John Warhurst is an Emeritus Professor of Political Science at the Australian National University.