While the ALP goes into today's Eden-Monaro byelection with what appears to be a handful of aces, the reality is the outcome is too close to call.
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One of the main aces Labor holds is that they have a solid candidate to replace a well-liked outgoing member who won the seat on four separate occasions.
Another is that governments traditionally don't fare well in byelections. That's because voters often take the opportunity to deliver a few timely uppercuts to get their attention.
The third is the mess the LNP made of the preselection of its candidate. There was an unedifying squabble between the Liberals and the Nationals which came on the back of a negative backlash against the PM in the electorate during the bushfire crisis.
The fourth ace, which may or may not be the kiss of death, is late polling was giving Labor a 52 per cent to 48 per cent lead on a two-party preferred basis on Friday.
Despite all of the above, there is absolutely no doubt Anthony Albanese, and his backers, would be a tad nervous. The Opposition has a lot more skin in this game than the Coalition.
If Labor fails to win serious questions will be asked about Mr Albanese's low-key style of leadership, not just since the pandemic began but ever since he took on the ALPs top job after Bill Shorten lost the "unlosable" election.
Eden-Monaro is not so much the Coalition's to win as the ALP's to lose. While it was, for decades, famous as the bellwether seat that had always gone with the government, that changed in 2016 when Dr Mike Kelly took it back from Peter Hendy.
Dr Kelly's resignation, the result of ongoing health issues related to his former military service, has set the stage for one of the most unusual by-elections in Australian history.
It is also the first time Eden-Monaro has gone to a by-election since 1926, almost 94 years ago. That was when the then incumbent, Sir Austin Chapman, who had held it since Federation, died in office. On that occasion the seat was retained by the Nationalist Party of which he had been a long-serving member.
Unlike the ALP, the Coalition is going into today's poll without the disadvantages of incumbency. If it does lose then it is a case of "Que sera sera, what will be will be". Nobody expects Prime Ministers to pull by-elections out of the hat, especially in the middle of a global pandemic.
That said, there is every reason to believe Liberal candidate Dr Fiona Kotvojs, who "Bradburyed" her way into the preselection with elegance and panache, stands a very good chance of being the new member.
A win in Eden-Monaro would give the Morrison government a massive shot in the arm.
She is already well known, having come within a cat's whisker of winning Eden-Monaro back off Dr Kelly last year, and, like Labor's Kristy McBain, is well across the local issues.
If Dr Kotvojs were to win she and the Prime Minister would have made history. It would be the first time a government has won a seat from the opposition in a byelection in a century. Such a win would give the LNP a massive shot in the arm nationally, be interpreted by the government as a vindication of its handling of the coronavirus crisis, and boost its still slim majority in the lower house.
What makes the contest so interesting is that because of the quality of the candidates, the history of the seat, the fact a record number of people have already lodged pre-poll and postal votes, and that this is happening in the midst of a major crisis, the result is still too close to call.
That said, whoever wins, the electors of Eden-Monaro will deserve to be congratulated for returning the first female Federal MP in the seat's 119-year history.