Americans go to the polls on November 3 in what is, on anybody's reckoning, a big election.
It's one of those elections where the fork in the road is clear. The two candidates who are battling it out offer very different visions of America and of the world.
There are other candidates but the winner will be either the current Republican president, Donald Trump, or the challenger from the Democratic Party, Joe Biden.
The winner will not necessarily be the person who gets more total votes than the other nationally.
Instead, the states cast votes in an "electoral college". They each have a certain number of votes, and usually cast all for one candidate or the other, whatever the split among the voters in the state in the election itself.
This means that who wins in which states matters as much as who gets the most voters overall.
Some states swing between the parties and that's where the election will be won and lost. New York and California will vote Democrat. Mississippi will vote Republican.
But what about: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin? These are the ones which will decide who sits in the Oval Office.
A bad week for the President
Last week was not good for Mr Trump.
The Atlantic magazine published a story describing his behind-the-scenes contempt for those serving in the US military (in contrast to his on-stage portrayal of himself as the Commander-in-Chief loyal to those in uniform).
And a new book by Bob Woodward (of Watergate fame), based on taped interviews with Mr Trump, had the president saying privately that the epidemic was going to be severe even as he was saying in public that it would soon be over.
Or maybe not such a bad week
Mr Trump defies normal politics. Pundits, particularly in the "liberal" media, have often underestimated him, but the last election showed that he connects with a swathe of America in ways outsiders fail to understand.
Remember his remarks about molesting a woman? Unspeakable in normal times - but Mr Trump still won.
"I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose any voters," he said - and he may be right.
He had some good news, too. The polls in Florida tightened. Mr Biden remains ahead but only by a sliver.
Florida is "must win" for Mr Trump but probably not for Mr Biden, though his route to the White House would be tougher without it.
Much is made of the Hispanic vote turning against Mr Trump after his repeated rhetoric which demonised some Mexican immigrants ("They're bringing drugs. They're bringing crime. They're rapists.")
But "the Hispanic vote" is not a single entity. In Florida, Cuban exiles (even those who have never lived on the island) value toughness against the regime in Havana. On this, Trump may have the edge over Biden, in perception at least.
What do the polls indicate?
Nationally, Mr Biden is in the lead.
"Joe Biden's lead in national polls has narrowed slightly since the Republican National Convention, but overall, polls show a relatively stable race, with most state-level polls - excluding those in Florida - containing good news for Biden," according to the widely respected FiveThirtyEight analysts.
But it's the swing states (or "battle-ground states") which matter. There are 538 votes in the Electoral College so the winner needs 270 votes.
The New York Times puts the following states as "toss ups": Florida (29 electoral votes); Arizona (11); Georgia (16); North Carolina (15).
All of these states went with Mr Trump in 2016 so if he loses any of them, he has a problem. It wouldn't be insurmountable unless he loses Florida.
The "leaning Democrat" states are: Michigan (16) which Mr Trump won in 2016. It has that classic white, working class, once-unionised, non-university-educated vote which may or may not have become disenchanted by the President's handling of the coronavirus epidemic.
There have been more than 6.3 million cases of COVID-19 across America.
The rate of unemployment in Michigan is just under nine per cent, but coming down.
It's also hard to see how the Black Lives Matter protests play there and in the neighbouring "industrial" states, particularly with violence on the evening news shows.
Minnesota (10 electoral college votes) is also in play and, according to The New York Times, leaning towards Joe Biden.
Pennsylvania (with 20 electoral college votes) was leaning slightly towards Mr Trump on the latest polls but he won there in 2016. Similarly with Wisconsin with its 10 electoral college votes.
Routes to victory
If Joe Biden wins in Florida, he looks home and dry.
His more likely route to victory would be via the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania which Mr Trump took in 2016.
But the margin of the Republican victory was small - Michigan by 10,000 votes, Wisconsin by 23,000 and Pennsylvania by 43,000.
But the prize is big. The three states have 46 electoral votes between them.
But there will be surprises
Don't underestimate Donald Trump.
Despite his apparent unease with words - often sneered at on the left - he has a talent for a slogan and a damaging nickname. He is a media performer.
"Sleepy Joe" may stick, particularly if 77-year-old Mr Biden stumbles over words in a presidential debate.
And don't forget the other election
Apart from the presidential election, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election as well as 33 Senate seats (a third of the Senate).
Democrats already control the House but not the Senate. If they controlled both, they would have a lot of power to block President Trump's measures, including the appointment of new Supreme Court justices.