Chasing a fifth-straight AFL Canberra flag, Ainslie have rebounded from a slow start to hit form at the right time of year while the Magpies limp into the must-win clash after big losses to Queanbeyan and Eastlake in recent weeks.

But Rourke, whose side emphatically downed Belconnen to win last year's premiership, expected nothing short of the Magpies' best this weekend.

"They set themselves up nicely early and they could probably afford to rest a couple in the last couple of weeks," Rourke said.

"I'd expect a completely different side to come out, they'll have their really good stoppage players. [Mitch] Maguire has been back for a couple of weeks, they'll have [Ryan] Turnbull and [Jack] Baker back in who are all experienced players.

"They're a good side on paper, they beat us up pretty well in the first game.

"It's always a great battle against Belco, on their home ground they're always pretty confident there. We look forward to it, it'll be a really physical clash.

"It's a great finals series, anybody can win it but we're probably the outsider at this stage."

Ainslie won just one of their first five matches this season, but have recovered as they look to emulate the almost invincible Tricolours' side of the 1990s which won six straight AFL Canberra flags.

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"It took a while to get going and we've found a little bit of form," Rourke said.

"There's no love lost between [Belconnen and] us and we know what we're going to get out there. Their ground really suits their stoppages.

"James Bennett leads a pretty good midfield squad out there and they're pretty dangerous, they cover the ground really well out there.

"You've got to win the contested ball out there. We expect it'll be really nice and physical and they'll certainly hand it back to us."

AFL Canberra finals

Elimination final: Belconnen Magpies v Ainslie Tricolours, Kippax Oval, 1.30pm

Qualifying final: Queanbeyan Tigers v Eastlake Demons, Margaret Donoghoe Sportsground, 1.30pm