From the basement of his Delaware home, Joe Biden has most likely won the presidency of the United States. He has won more votes, over 73 million, than any candidate in US history. Biden's campaign, broadcast from his basement TV studio, looks to have triumphed.
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Should these numbers hold, Biden will be the first Democratic former vice-president to win the presidency since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. And Johnson had already ascended to the presidency after the assassination of John F. Kennedy. Biden has succeeded where Hubert Humphry, Walter Mondale, and Al Gore failed.
Kamala Harris achieves an even more profound first: she will be the nation's first female vice-president. She is also the first African American and South Asian person, let alone woman, to become vice-president.
The American electorate sent mixed signals, however. Trump also increased his party's vote, winning over 69 million. Far from a Democratic landslide, Trump's "base" grew, even in the face of a pandemic and economic recession. Even if they did not want their children to be like Trump, millions of Americans voted for him. This time, however, Trump has lost both the popular vote and the all-important electoral college.
The Democrats will hold their majority in the House of Representatives but are not likely to win a Senate majority. This will frustrate Biden, but he promised that he would work with both sides of the political divide. Now he must deliver on that promise.
When Americans vote for a new president, a transition process begins. Congress passed the Presidential Transition Act of 1963 to ensure an orderly and peaceful transfer of power takes place between election day and inauguration day, January 20. The act facilitates communication between the new president's team and government agencies. There are 4000 political appointments to make. Briefings occur on all manner of issues, including defence, trade, and the economy. This year, pandemic management should be a top priority.
Yet transitions can go horribly wrong - and no more so than in 1860-61. As Abraham Lincoln prepared for his administration, seven states seceded from the United States to form the breakaway Confederate States of America. Fearing he would abolish slavery, those states left before Lincoln's inauguration, thus precipitating the Civil War.
As deep as divisions are in the United States today, drama on that scale is unlikely. Yet these are dangerous times, especially as Trump disputes the election and many of his supporters are armed and threaten violence.
Trump is refusing to concede defeat, and possibly never will. This is premeditated. Prior to the election, he refused to commit to respecting the result. His court challenges may hold up the pace of transition, even should they fail.
Inauguration day in January will be moving day for both the departing and incoming president. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has vowed to "fumigate" the White House should Trump be found inside watching Fox News and venting on Twitter as Biden's moving van pulls up to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
It is traditional for an outgoing president to leave a note in his desk for the incoming president. Obama wrote to Trump: "This is a unique office, without a clear blueprint for success." Had there been such a blueprint, Trump likely would have ignored it.
It is difficult to imagine Trump leaving Biden a gracious note. Perhaps he will tag Biden in a tweet. Perhaps a staffer will write one. Outgoing presidents' spouses usually give the incoming spouse a tour of the White House, so Melania Trump will be expected to show Jill Biden around. Will Trump agree to meet Biden in the White House before the handover, or will he engage in a scorched-earth policy of non-co-operation?
At present, Biden's transition is mostly a website, buildbackbetter.com. Yet, one task he can begin now will be to select his cabinet. Chaotic as they were, the Democratic Party primary debates gave Biden a view of the available talent. He might appoint Elizabeth Warren commerce secretary and Susan Rice, Obama's National Security Advisor, secretary of state. Rice, as the equivalent of Australia's foreign minister, will certainly embrace US allies more than Trump. Will Biden tap Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, or Cory Booker, for a spot - or dare pick Bernie Sanders, or even Hillary Clinton? The latter two, I suspect not.
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A Trump-less Republican Party will appear, like all defeated political parties, bitterly divided. Trump attracted mass enthusiasm, but alienated many other establishment Republicans, like the conservative intellectual George Will.
Trump remade the party in his own image so there will be a void and power struggle without him. Will the Bush family try to regain control? Or will Mitt Romney or Ted Cruz? What about those Republicans behind the Lincoln Project's biting attack ads? They attacked Trump harder than even the Democrats.
What of Trump's future? Outgoing presidents are dubbed lame duck presidents. But they are not powerless. For two more months, Trump is responsible for national defence, the economy, and the COVID-19 response. Outgoing presidents can also issue pardons. Trump has already issued a grab-bag of pardons, mostly to political allies and with far more largesse than previous presidents. Who is left? Ghislaine Maxwell?
For an outgoing president, the transition from public office-holder to private citizen can be challenging. Jimmy Carter found meaning by dedicating himself to charity. What will Trump do?
It is hard to imagine him lining up at future chummy post-presidential photo ops with Jimmy, Bill, George, and Barack. But he loves the limelight, so you never know.
If life as a golf-course-owning and skyscraper-owning former reality TV star does not feel quite the same after living in the White House and criss-crossing the country on Air Force One, Trump can run again in 2024.
As for Biden, when he takes the oath of office on January 20, will he think, even if only momentarily, that the next transition might not be too far off? After all, he will be 78 - and Harris is a heartbeat away from the presidency. The only other two Democratic vice-presidents to become president since 1836, Johnson and Harry S. Truman, did so after their predecessor died in office.
Let's take this one transition at a time.
- Dr Daniel Fleming is a US history lecturer at UNSW Sydney, where he teaches the course The Making of Trump's America. His forthcoming book is Living the Dream: A History of the Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday.
