Morrison learned from his mistakes of last summer, about how he needed to adapt his own style, and where power really lies in the federation. That knowledge served him well in the COVID-19 crisis.

He was ever-present, with frequent news conferences, and the creation of the "national cabinet" - a success despite arguments and fragmentation - maximised the federal government's clout in a situation where the preponderance of power rested with the states.

The imperatives of 2021 will be different - assuming we remain largely COVID-free. In juggling the dual health and economic challenges, the emphasis will be on the latter. Reducing unemployment will be top priority, requiring some delicate balancing as the fiscal life support is removed.

And Australia will be operating in a world where COVID-19 is still rampant, and in a situation further complicated by deep tensions in our relationship with China.

The public may - or may not - be in more of a mood for political disputation in 2021. They certainly have not been this year. If they are not, that will work against Anthony Albanese.

The (bad) times have suited Morrison, including making it easier to keep his own troops in line. Next year will bring the climate debate seriously to the fore - never easy to manage internally.

With a very healthy lead as preferred prime minister, Morrison feels confident he has Albanese's measure. But one uncertainty is whether Labor might change leaders. How would Morrison have to adapt his style if he faced Jim Chalmers or, more intriguingly, Tanya Plibersek?

As he now contemplates an unpredictable 2021, what issues will the PM have front of mind? And what do experts believe should be done on them?

Thursday's budget update told a better story than expected as recently as the October budget. Growth is forecast at 4.5 per cent in calendar 2021, after a fall of 2.5 per cent in 2020. Unemployment, 6.8 per cent in November, is set to peak at 7.5 per cent in the 2021 March quarter.

Despite the encouraging prospects, the road will be bumpy and risky as we move to a post-COVID economy.

Saul Eslake, independent economist: "What the government has to do is manage and accelerate the transition from policies that support pre-existing jobs and businesses to policies that nurture the new jobs and businesses that will be sustainable in the post-COVID world - and in a 'post China' world where we need to diversify markets."

The bilateral relationship was already bad, but the 2020 deterioration has been spectacular and alarming. China is now targeting Australian exports ranging from barley and wine to coal; this week Australia referred the barley dispute to the World Trade Organization.

Handling the relationship is Australia's 2021 foreign policy conundrum, with no obvious way forward. Morrison repeatedly declares the government wants ministerial and leadership dialogue to resume, but the Chinese show no interest.

Richard McGregor, China specialist at the Lowy Institute: "The solution is not entirely in Australia's hands. But assuming we want to dial this down, we have to find the right combination of firm language (which offers no retreat from our core interests) and diplomatic signalling which encourages China to also agree to establish a floor under the bilateral relationship."

Morrison has been shifting, and eyes are on whether he'll commit Australia to zero net emissions by 2050, a target endorsed in a recent Essential poll by 81 per cent of Australians.

Joe Biden's election, Britain's strong stance, next year's Glasgow climate conference, and possible trade barriers will all put pressure on Australia. But Morrison has to contend with Nationals, and some Liberals, for whom the 2050 target is anathema.

Tony Wood, director of the Grattan Institute's energy program: "Morrison should announce that the government's strategic objective is net zero emissions by 2050. To make that credible, he should complement his government's technology focus with a commitment to deliver an economy-wide investment framework to deploy these technologies, with legislated milestones tightly set in the short term and consistent with the strategic objective in the long term."

Hard liners see the government's reform package as a Clayton's effort; pragmatists say it's sensibly moderate. It will be highly contested over the summer, but the government is signalling it will compromise. Morrison doesn't want IR to cost votes.

Ray Markey, emeritus professor of employment relations at Macquarie University: "The government should rebalance its employer-influenced proposals to genuinely protect casuals and gig workers, and support genuine enterprise bargaining."

The government this week announced $1 billion extra, but the big decisions await the royal commission's February report. We know - from COVID-19, which claimed nearly 700 lives among aged care residents - that the system is unfit for purpose, as it faces the Baby Boomer bubble.

Joseph Ibrahim, a geriatrician at Monash University: "The aged care legislation should be rewritten to put human rights at its centre, and enough money provided so older people can enjoy their lives in the same way as everyone else."

The fallout out from the inquiry into alleged Australian atrocities in Afghanistan has been swift and divisive, with some serving and former soldiers furious.

Neil James, executive director of the Australian Defence Association: "We just need to let passions cool so objective decisions can be made in the new year."

The ways ahead on all these issues will be complex. In political terms, the question is whether Morrison can maintain, in the new circumstances of 2021, the ascendancy he established, somewhat unexpectedly, in 2020.