Let's use this moment, as we stand poised on the brink of another year, to take control.
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It's an opportunity, however fleeting, to shift direction, and choose another path. It's important that as individuals we do, because the road down which society is plunging has become dark. This year, more than ever, the shadows are reaching out and threatening to stop us reaching our destination: simply arriving safely in a place we all want to find ourselves requires attention and effort.
To find your own way, begin with a review. Use a technique made popular by former US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld back in 2002 as he attempted to explain away the lack of evidence for the Iraq war, but invert it to drive your questioning. Begin with 'known knowns' - the things you think you're sure of - and use this to challenge your understanding of the way the coming year will unfold. Start from the certainties.
One of these, for example, is that Scott Morrison can't call the next election before August 7th and has until 3rd September 2022 to hold it. It's such a huge window there's a natural temptation to lazily accept the PM's insistence that he's "not going to rush to the polls". But ignore what he says, start making deductions, and a very different picture emerges. Psephologist Malcolm Mackerras thinks the election will be held in November (I reckon September) but a date this year certainly seems far more likely and that's because Morrison wants to win.
Why would he choose, voluntarily, to insert another bushfire season before the poll? It's an unnecessary risk. It also explains why the PM's being so kind to Anthony Albanese. He knows he can defeat, no obliterate, his opponent so Morrison wants everyone to think the election's a long way off simply because the closer the big day comes, the harder it becomes for Labor to change. Follow the logic, ignore the flummery, and the implications become clear. Labor is sleepwalking to their next defeat.
Shift to the next step in this analysis; "known unknowns". These are problems that we know exist but don't know how they'll play out. The biggest of these that we find ourselves confronting today is China and "big" is the operative word.
Nobody's suggesting that we should abandon our concern for human rights or sit back and allow Beijing to penetrate cyber-networks, but nor does that mean we should be picking fights we can't win. Morrison has, time and again, needlessly provoked Beijing by setting ambit claims and not backing up accusations by outlining potential off-ramps that would deescalate conflict.
The past year has witnessed the speediest deterioration in our international standing and strategic circumstances since 1942. Plans to obtain frigates in 15 years or submarines in 25 won't make any difference to this: the time to act is now. If Morrison thinks Xi Jinping is going to wake up one morning and feel the need to suddenly pick up the phone and call, he's living in an alternate universe. Repairing this relationship will take careful work, clearly delineating exactly what our interests are and where the rhetoric ends and practical engagement begins.
The third rubric is "unknown knowns", the things we know but won't (or can't bring ourselves to) acknowledge. Climate change is the most obvious of these.
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We know the weather's been weird but rather than accepting that this all stems from the one central cause - humanity's interactions with the environment - we attempt to dismiss it as Morrison did recently. He insisted that sometimes the bush burns, other times it floods, and that's the way it's always been. Don't just accept that bland reassurance. Yes, the climate has always changed, but look at the pattern today and it's obvious the extremes are worse and the gradual rise in temperature is rapidly developing an inexorable grip on the landscape.
This continent is fragile - it risks being one of the worst affected by this physical climate shift. As a trade-dependent nation, Australia is also extremely highly exposed to other changes to counter what's occurring. Other countries - the EU, Biden's US - will soon be implementing trade barriers to protect their industry and halt our exports. The effect of climate change will ripple down in so many different ways.
The final analytic frame is, of course, "unknown unknowns". Last year it was the coronavirus: this year it might be some mutation (and development of a new strain); an earthquake in California; or even just everything snapping back to "normal".
Just imagine. Labor might even search around and suddenly find it has an inspirational, electable leader. This person could even speak Mandarin and we might hope they'd resolve the seemingly intractable problems in this relationship. They might recognise that climate change is the great moral issue of our time and strive to create a workable, shared future for everyone. Wouldn't that be great? Unfortunately there's no point in waiting for a miracle, no matter how desirable or simple it might seem. Reality doesn't work that way - human nature always seems to get in the way.
So what should we do as we begin the new year? How should we live? No matter what happens over the next 12 months, the events of the past year offer a clear guide for us to follow.
There's no point waiting for our "leaders" to solve problems, because they won't or can't. We need to take action ourselves, beginning with our own security and recognising our own health and emotional needs and requirements. The most devastating tragedies are the personal. Similarly, the most liberating and inspiring moments are the ones shared with close friends and family. Anything else fails to come close.
Make sure you make time to privilege these relationships in the coming year. They're the ones that count.
- Nicholas Stuart is a regular columnist.