The Morrison government's bid to force Facebook and Google to pay for news sits on the wrong side of the most-advantageous political horse trade for the incoming Joe Biden White House.
A triumphant Democratic Party, in control of both White House and Congress, has its eyes on regulating Silicon Valley like never before.
The presidency of Donald Trump exposed weaknesses in the unregulated social media space, shielded from laws that other publishers face, but that's not the only big tech reform on the agenda.
Privacy controls and competition were a priority for Democrats even before the maelstroms of misinformation that engulfed the 2016 and 2020 US elections.
Now with a majority, Democratic leaders say they have no shortage of good ideas as they pledge to take aim at the mega digital platforms that imperilled the democratic process.
While the Morrison government's media bargaining code is shaping up to be a knock-down, drag-out brawl with Facebook and Google, the Biden administration will face a comparatively cordial process as they work to address issues.
The contrast is already stark. In the US, the tech giants implemented some of what Democrats wanted, spent more than US$60 million on supporting members of congress last year. Silicon Valley insiders helped President-elect Biden's transition process - but nobody with a direct conflict of interest over the coming reforms.
The incoming president has a history of working collaboratively with Silicon Valley during the Obama administration, and has a long-time personal friendship with Facebook's vice president for global affairs, the former British deputy prime minister Nick Clegg.
In Australia, meanwhile, Google experimented with dumping local news providers altogether and ran ads across its widely-used services to counter the government's talking points about the proposed bargaining code.
Incoming Biden officials could collect a very easy chip in their own big tech negotiations by offering to pressure the Australian government into watering down the proposed mandatory code.
Australia is a small market on the other side of the world, but setting an example clearly matters to the two US companies targeted by the proposal. Beyond that, there are parts of the proposed code that are toxic to US sensibilities against far-reaching regulation.
Even the fear of crossing the commercial interests of Rupert Murdoch didn't scare off powerful US legal and business lobby groups from pushing back against Australia directly. Now US trade representatives have joined the opposition, and it's unlikely to ease up anytime soon.
Team Biden will soon decide how much they care and how much they lean on the Morrison government.