A question Napoleon reportedly used to ask when considering promoting a general was "is he lucky?". The little Corporal knew that while competence, smarts, and confidence were key attributes, being a favourite of the goddess Fortuna was most important of all.
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Was this also the question Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg asked themselves ahead of the upbeat, indeed positively optimistic, assessment of the economic outlook delivered by the PM at the National Press Club on Monday?
"The comeback in Australia's economy is already under way and betters the experience of most advanced economy nations in the world today," the PM said. "Australians are voting with their feet to join the economic recovery ... 90 per cent of the jobs lost to COVID-19 had returned by the year's end ... there is now a large sum of money available to be spent across the economy and that is what is going to ... maintain the momentum of our economic recovery".
While acknowledging JobKeeper had "saved not just livelihoods, it saved lives" Mr Morrison was in no mood to announce an extension or to even keep the door open to the possibility of one.
"Emergency measures are temporary and accompanied by a clear fiscal exit strategy," he said. "You can't run the Australian economy on taxpayers' money forever ... We are not running a blank-cheque budget".
Right. Mission accomplished. Let's move on to the next crisis.
But is the government, after having gone hard and early with economic stimulus and income support, now slamming on the brakes too soon? Many people, including the ALP's Jim Chalmers and hundreds of thousands of workers still hanging on by their fingernails in hard pressed industry sectors such as tourism and accommodation would say yes.
While the sudden change of gear from the Coalition's involuntary flirtation with Keynesian stimulus back to what appears to a more Friedman-esque supply-side, trickle-down approach, will please some on the government's right it could easily backfire.
Australia is fighting an evolving virus so virulent a single case can shut down Brisbane, Adelaide or Perth. COVID-19 has never been more rampant around the world.
Significant problems are emerging with the global rollout of the vaccine due to production and distribution difficulties. There are, in short, a lot of variables over which the Australian government has absolutely no control, currently in play.
There are a lot of variables over which the government has no control in play.
With 2021 widely tipped to be an election year luck is going to play an important part for Mr Morrison and his government given the next poll will be theirs to lose. The best way to do that is to bungle the economic recovery by not doing enough to build on the generally solid work that has been done to date.
Australia's economy, even in the time of coronavirus, does not exist in isolation. If the global recovery stalls, as well it might, Australia's "snap back" will also be affected.
This is the time to be treading very warily, monitoring developments, avoiding unnecessary domestic conflicts such as a stoush with the unions over the BOOT test and workplace flexibility, and keeping every weapon - including JobKeeper - in the arsenal.
It would be very easy for the government to overestimate the amount of political capital it has accumulated over the past year. 2020 has shown we are living in an age when national circumstances can change with unprecedented speed.
Luck will only get you so far. Prudence, foresight, and flexibility are necessary as well.
