At present there are redistributions under way for House of Representatives seats in Victoria and Western Australia. Victoria will go up from 38 to 39 seats, WA down from 16 to 15. The enrolment quota for a seat in WA is 112,172 voters, while in Victoria it is 109,021.

For my part I have, so far, not taken much interest in Victoria, while being intensely interested in WA. Why so? It is more interesting to work out which WA seat will be abolished than to imagine what Victorian seat might be created (that's easy - there will be a new Victorian electoral division called Hawke).

Three years ago South Australia underwent a redistribution similar, in principle, to what is happening today in WA. Since SA needed to go down from 11 to 10 a seat was lost, and I correctly predicted it would be Port Adelaide. When we know the proposed maps for WA this Friday, we'll know whether I am right again this time.

My prediction is that Pearce (currently held by Attorney-General Christian Porter) will be abolished - and Porter will retire gracefully at the expiration of the term of the 46th Parliament.

Electoral commissioners take no notice of who the incumbent may be in a seat. Even if Porter were still a powerful figure, Pearce would be a prime target for abolition because its abolition is so logical. I admit, however, that my prediction does not excite the scepticism today that it would have endured if made a month ago.

The electoral division of Tangney, on Perth's inner south side, is the one with the lowest enrolment, with only 94,365 electors. However, that is not the only piece of information that will be taken into account. Bear in mind that there are natural boundaries in the form of the Swan and Canning rivers.

The electoral commissioners will not abolish Tangney, held by Ben Morton, who has been the Assistant Minister to the Prime Minister and Cabinet since the 2019 federal election.. Morton is very well regarded. I know that because I am a volunteer guide at the Museum of Australian Democracy at Old Parliament House. Morton is the minister in charge. Tangney will need some 17,000 electors added to it. That will happen.

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The Parliamentary Handbook distinguishes different types of seats. Of the 16 in WA, only two are genuinely rural - Durack and O'Connor. The third most rural is Forrest in the south-west, which is also technically described as "rural". The fourth most rural is Pearce and the fifth most rural is Canning, held by Andrew Hastie.

Both Pearce and Canning are described as "outer metropolitan". The Division of Hasluck is also described as "outer metropolitan" and is held by the Minister for Indigenous Australians, Ken Wyatt. It will need 10,000 electors added to it. That will happen.

On any basis of logic, Pearce is the obvious seat to abolish, as I now explain. Durack has only 97,104 electors and O'Connor only 101,983. Durack will need at least 10,000 electors added and O'Connor at least 8000. One need only to look at the map. Rural places such as Beverley, Gingin, Northam, Toodyay and York are in Pearce. They will be moved into Durack and/or O'Connor.

Durack presently has an area of 1,629,858 square kilometres, and O'Connor 868,576 square kilometres. Both will need to increase. Durack's area is already the greatest in Australia. Obviously neither Durack nor O'Connor will be abolished.

With Pearce eliminated, the metropolitan seats of Brand, Burt, Cowan, Curtin, Fremantle, Moore, Perth, Stirling, Swan and Tangney will need to be built up in elector numbers, as will the extra-metropolitan seats of Canning, Forrest and Hasluck.

All the above logic was arrived at without regard to who the incumbent may be. Were that to be taken into account, however, Pearce would still be the seat to get the chop. The harsh truth is that Morton, Hastie and Wyatt may well be junior, but they are well regarded. Porter, on the other hand - well, I think I have written enough about him.