The ACT will need to rapidly accelerate its vaccine program when the bulk of the remaining 500,000 doses of Pfizer arrive from October to vaccinate all eligible Canberrans by the end of the year, if federal supply projections are met.
Projections from the federal government show that there would be enough vaccines in Canberra to vaccinate everyone by the end of September.
However, the ACT government says the make-up of that supply would be too heavily skewed towards AstraZeneca to allow full vaccination coverage by that time.
The AstraZeneca vaccine was recommended for people over 60 by Australia's vaccine advisory group, but Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Monday night encouraged anyone under 60 who wanted to get it, to speak with their doctor.
It will be October before enough supplies of Pfizer - and potentially Moderna subject to safety approvals - arrive in the territory to allow a major step-up in the vaccination program, most likely through the opening of a fourth vaccination centre.
About 10 per cent of eligible Canberrans are fully vaccinated against COVID-19.
The ACT government estimates about 100,00 doses of AstraZeneca and 500,000 doses of Pfizer, or Moderna, are still needed to fully vaccinate the population.
Based on the lowest end of vaccine supply projections from the federal government, the ACT could receive all the AstraZeneca doses required for the over-60 cohort in the next three weeks.
However, to have that entire group vaccinated would require a boost in appointments.
Pfizer supply doesn't significantly ramp up until September, with 34,000 doses projected weekly from October.
Health authorities in the territory are working under the assumption the vaccine program will need to cover approximately 340,000 ACT residents above the age of 16.
Across ACT government-run clinics 26,681 people have had two doses of vaccine, and 52,206 people have had one dose.
More than 155,749 doses have been administered across territory facilities, general practices and aged and disability care.
Under pressure to be more transparent about the progress of the rollout, last week the new boss of the federal vaccine rollout, Lieutenant General John Frewen released a document laying out how many vaccine doses would be allocated to each state and territory weekly until the end of the year.
Giving both a minimum and maximum likely doses each week across three phases - July and August, September and October through December, the document lays out how many doses of the Pfizer, AstraZeneca and Moderna vaccines are going to be shipped to GPs, to the territory's hubs and to residential aged and disability care facilities.
But even the lower end of the projections appear to be overly ambitious compared to what the ACT has been told to expect to be delivered.
According to the federal projections, the ACT should expect to be delivered between 11,700 and 14,000 Pfizer doses each week in July, but ACT Health has been told it will actually be delivered 10,530 each week to be administered across the Garran and airport vaccination hubs.
The ACT has experienced huge demand for vaccines, particularly compared to other states and territories.
An ACT government spokeswoman said there was no target date to complete the rollout.
"Using the lower end of the supply range in the Commonwealth's horizons document this could be achieved by end of 2021," she said.
"However there are a number of variables including actual supply, population uptake, ATAGI recommendations, and vaccine TGA approvals including approvals for new age groups."
She said the capacity for general practices, and eventually pharmacies to take part in administering Pfizer would be critical, as they are expected to deliver more than half the outstanding doses.
The spokeswoman said the government had capacity to administer forecast supply until October.
"At which point we may need to expand our capacity, potentially through an additional clinic," she said.
The ACT clinics can administer about 10,000 doses a week in July, which will increase to 14,000 a week by mid-August, pending supply.
"Consideration is already under way for establishment of a fourth vaccination clinic."
A third vaccine hub opened at the Canberra Airport precinct on Tuesday which will reach maximum capacity of 3000 Pfizer doses a week next month.
ACT Chief Minister Andrew Barr said Canberra has ahead of the Australian average in vaccine delivery.
"I understand that we are ahead of the Australian average in the delivery of both first doses and second doses to fully vaccinate residents, Mr Barr said
Mr Barr urged Canberrans who are eligible to make an appointment, adding "the quicker you book, the quicker you get through the vaccination process."
"Our objective is to vaccinate as many Canberrans as soon as possible, and the statistics are very good in terms of vaccine take up in the ACT," Mr Barr said.
Mr Barr welcomed the supply projections and said it would allow the government to plan to ramp up its rollout.
"We would have prefer to have more people vaccinated, and we should have had more people vaccinated in time for winter."
More than 48,500 Canberrans are booked in to get a vaccine in the coming weeks.
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