The Prime Minister arrived back from his G7 excursion on June 17. He spent a fortnight in quarantine at The Lodge (including joining Parliament remotely) before going home to Sydney - already in lockdown - on July 2.

Since then, after several days absent from view, it's been Covid-dominated Kirribilli news conferences, media interviews, and no doubt an encouraging word to Jen about the coming test of home schooling. Next week Morrison moves to Canberra - to quarantine for the parliamentary sitting that starts on August 3.

Anthony Albanese took a different course. He hasn't returned to Sydney since Parliament rose. He hung around Canberra initially, then headed north for a swing through Queensland. He might be missing his son and his dog, but he has covered a lot of kilometres.

On Monday of last week he was in Toowoomba, in the electorate of Groom. The following days saw him at Redcliffe (Petrie), Cairns (Leichhardt), Mackay (Dawson), and Gladstone (Flynn). He visited the seat of Griffith in Brisbane before going to Moranbah (Capricornia), where he went to a coal mine.

Returning to Brisbane, he took in Lilley on the way to the airport and a flight to Canberra this week - to avoid Sydney and so retain flexibility (although the country is now so closed, he's running out of places to go).

Being confined during this winter parliamentary recess obviously doesn't make any decisive difference for Morrison's electoral fortunes. Nevertheless, it is an interference to his campaigning.

The government makes the counterpoints that the Opposition Leader has nothing else to do but campaign - and anyway, it's a bad look to be away from your home city in its hour of need.

Normally, Morrison would have used some of the winter break to be on the road - to be seen in several parts of the country, and to get to out-of-the-way seats.

Instead, that work will have to be crunched into later. It all takes time, and Morrison will be even more time-poor if he makes any of several possible trips overseas between now and Christmas. Also eating into campaigning time are the parliamentary weeks.

Maximum seat-by-seat campaigning is especially important when the chaotic vaccine program and the Sydney lockdown - and now a short one in Victoria - are throwing curveballs into the political outlook.

Until relatively recently, it appeared most likely that Morrison, like state and territory leaders, would have the strong advantage of "Covid incumbency" when facing the voters next year.

But lockdown upheavals, rollout inadequacies and confusion, and community anger make any assumptions courageous.

An analysis published this week of Newspolls taken between April 21 and June 26 found two-party swings against the Coalition in every state except Victoria, with the biggest swings in Queensland and Western Australia.

The analysis concluded that if this were replicated at an election, the ALP could win majority government with 78 seats (in a 151-seat House).

This should be treated cautiously, even apart from any scepticism about polls. The election isn't imminent. And translating general swings to particular seats is hazardous.

On the other hand, the Coalition's seat numbers are at a high point in Queensland and Western Australia, making it difficult for it to look for any significant gains there.

It's no wonder Morrison, dubbed by his critics the "Prime Minister for NSW", is pinning hope on gaining seats in his home state. Throughout the pandemic he has heaped praise on the Berejiklian government. In the Sydney lockdown, now extended for at least an extra fortnight, the federal government's package for the state drew accusations from Victoria of "double standards".

Anyway, NSW can no longer be celebrated for its model handling of Covid, and the state government is under criticism for the timing (too late) and nature (too soft) of the lockdown.

People might not be enthusiastic about Albanese's Labor, but if the opposition picked off a few seats (in net terms), it would not take much to change the map. Think a hung parliament.

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The chances of that might be statistically unlikely. But it wouldn't be a total surprise - given the government is on a razor's edge (current House numbers are Coalition 76 and Labor-plus-crossbench 75), and an unfavourable redistribution has scrapped a Liberal seat in WA and created a Labor one in Victoria.

A small event this week triggered a comparison between how Morrison's political persona came across in the run-up to the "miracle" election and his image now.

It was announced the charges against a woman alleged to have put needles into strawberries in 2018 had been dropped. Morrison turned the Great Strawberry Crisis into a dramatic national event, rushing legislation through at breakneck speed. This was more stunt than substance, but it was all about portraying him as a man of action.

The action-man image was punctured before the vaccine debacle, but the failures in this stage of a real crisis (after the earlier successes) are dealing him a serious blow.

In 2019, many voters actively disliked Bill Shorten; they found Morrison a more neutral figure, the man next door, not a world-beater but OK. Since then, opinions have sharpened. Women look at Morrison differently from back then. The coating of teflon has many scratches. Albanese is now the inoffensive man next door.

With the rollout a battle, this week reinforced that Morrison has become hostage to events beyond his control, struggling to respond to them; a leader forced to repeatedly change tack and lines, find excuses, slap on sticking plaster, and spend more money in ever-shifting financial assistance.

The health challenge in trying to get in front of Covid's Delta strain is formidable. Morrison finds the politics as hard.