The differences between the states and territories are stark and deep. Too often the reporting of the politics of Australia's federal system during the pandemic gives the impression state and territory differences are all about leadership or political persuasion. That it is about the differences in personality between Gladys, Dan and Annastacia, or about the differences in approach between Liberal and Labor states.
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That is misleading. Some of that may play a part, but there are far deeper differences in culture, demography and geography between various states and territories.
This has been starkly evident in the frequently reported statistics of vaccination rates across the country broken down by jurisdiction. These are updated regularly. Earlier in the week it was reported 26 per cent of Australians were fully vaccinated. The numbers range from 32 per cent in Tasmania (30 per cent in both the ACT and the NT) and 23 per cent in Western Australia (24.5 per cent in Queensland) with NSW and Victoria somewhere in the middle. The ranking was somewhat similar for first jabs only, although the ACT went to the top at 54 per cent.
These figures are intriguing, but the take-up of the census on August 10 also showed striking differences between the states and territories.
In this case, the ACT was at the very top (79 per cent completion) followed by Victoria and NSW/SA (73 per cent and 69 per cent respectively). Queensland (64 per cent) and Western Australia (67 per cent) were once again near the bottom, with Tasmania and the Northern Territory even lower.
Vaccination and the census both depend to some extent on individual initiative, but are otherwise very different. Vaccination is much more complicated and involves both federal and state governments in facilitation of supply, advertising and rollout. It also requires a greater effort by individuals to arrange their vaccination. By comparison, the census is a federal government responsibility entirely, and was largely conducted online, which for most people meant a quicker and easier process undertaken from the comfort of their own homes.
In both cases, getting vaccinated and completing the census, experts agreed they were largely risk-free exercises in which an individual was not just helping themselves, but also contributing to the common good; obvious and immediate in the case of vaccination, and more abstract and long-term in the case of the census. Vaccination saves lives, while the census contributes to longer-term planning and service delivery.
Despite this expert agreement, vaccine hesitancy has been a major problem. There may be some census hesitancy too. Anti-vaxxers spread wild theories about government conspiracies and health dangers. Anti-census attitudes likewise spread where there is distrust of what the government might do with the personal information gathered, such as sharing it with the tax office.
The stark differences between the states revealed in these two sets of figures shout out for explanation. If we assume they really mean something and are not just statistical blips, then there is something going on. And whatever is going on is more than just personality or capacity differences between leaders and/or the consequence of political ideologies.
There are huge differences between the various states and territories, ranging from the obvious ones like population, geographic size and urban-rural divide to slightly less obvious ones such as income and education levels, occupation types, and ethnic and Indigenous composition. Distance from the federal government in Canberra may be another factor.
Less obvious are cultural and attitudinal differences, including religious beliefs, trust in government, especially the federal government, self-sufficiency and individualism.
It was always a good bet that vaccination rates in the ACT would be among the highest in the nation, despite our low rate of COVID-19 infections (the past few days notwithstanding). Even if we felt relatively protected and comfortable until recently, it was likely a middle-class, highly educated community living in a small city-state would be enthusiastically compliant despite some supply difficulties. It was also likely that the ACT community would complete the census comparatively quickly.
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But although many of these characteristics don't apply to Tasmania, that state has a slightly higher vaccination rate (though a very low census completion rate). The Tasmanian community is less well off, and while the population is also small it is more dispersed than that of the ACT. Perhaps the state government should get greater credit for the high level of vaccination in Tasmania. The census was not just a lower priority, but it was the responsibility of a distant federal government
The high vaccination rate in the NT, despite challenging factors including a high Indigenous population, also deserves investigation and credit where it is due. Perhaps Indigenous community leaders deserve the greatest credit, along with the NT government, for a focus on vaccination in Indigenous communities.
Whatever the reasons, it is striking that the three smallest jurisdictions (the NT, ACT and Tasmania) have the highest rates of full vaccination.
The relatively low vaccination rates in the biggest states are hardest to explain. They have been hardest hit by the virus. Geographical and population dispersion, at least in the case of NSW, may be the main factor.
The low rates in Western Australia and Queensland may also be explained by a complacent sense of safety behind locked borders.
This is largely speculation, but my main message is to divert discussion away from leadership and partisan differences towards the deeper variations between states and territories within our country.
- John Warhurst is an emeritus professor of political science at the Australian National University and a regular columnist.