The Taliban shocked international observers by routing the Afghan government earlier this month, seizing control of Kabul within two weeks after a US-led withdrawal of coalition forces.

But observers believed the new regime would struggle to maintain order, potentially plunging Afghanistan into a deadly civil war.

The fear was laid bare by twin bomb blasts ripping through Kabul's Hamid Karzai Airport on Friday, killing at least 170 civilians.

The attack was carried out by ISIS-K, an offshoot of the Islamic State and rival of the Taliban, and prompted Australia to abruptly abandon rescue efforts in the country.

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Lowy Institute Middle East expert Lydia Khalil said ISIS-K would attempt to exploit a power vacuum, with the Taliban yet to consolidate its quickly-won control.

"The risk of civil conflict returning to Afghanistan is very high. It is very likely to be a new playing field, or a new theatre, for jihadi competition," she told The Canberra Times.

"Things will just get more complicated, and potentially more violent, into the future. This [attack] is really just the opening salvo."

A United Nations report estimated ISIS-K was made up of around 2000 fighters, primarily in northern and eastern Afghanistan. It was already suspected of carrying out a host of atrocities in the country, including an attack on a Kabul school in May which killed 80 people, mostly female students.

Islamic State was battle-hardened during the Syrian civil war, eventually capturing and governing swathes of the country, and US President Joe Biden said it was in the Taliban's interests to prevent ISIS-K metastasising in a similar way.

The Taliban has already made overtures to Russian and Chinese diplomats, and Ms Khalil said it was "playing a very delicate balancing act" by putting on a "face of moderation" for the international community.

She said its prospects would be heavily linked to cooperation from the Afghan public, the country's civil service continuing to operate, and international aid.

"There's only so far it can take it with intimidation or brutality. They got what they wanted: they're in control of government, but now they have to actually govern," she said.

"But the more that they do that, the more that provides fodder for rival jihadist organisations who are more hardline, like the Islamic State.

"They view this as an opportunity to wedge the Taliban and destabilise its rule. So Islamic State is going to be playing a really important spoiler role."

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She warned foreign fighters from the region would be drawn to Afghanistan, as they were to Syria at the height of its civil war, with access easier in the absence of American troops.

"They'll be there ready and waiting for jihadists who are dissatisfied with the more conciliatory political turn the Taliban is taking. They could potentially become absorbed by ISIS-K. That's the strategy they're banking on," she said.

Adjunct professor of social sciences at University of Western Afghanistan Amin Saikal warned ISIS-K was already made up of disaffected ex-Taliban members, and the new regime would continue to bleed members.

Coupled with criminal gangs taking advantage of Afghanistan's opium trade and resistance in the country's east, he said the Taliban would struggle to keep a lid on the situation.

Mr Saikal, author of Modern Afghanistan: A History of Struggle and Survival, described Afghanistan as "basically a rentier state", heavily dependent on foreign aid. He said the Taliban's best chance at long-term survival was courting public approval via economic and social development.

"It's not just a question of bringing order to the country at the point of a gun," he told The Canberra Times.

But that would be exacerbated by an exodus of the educated Afghan class who feared retribution at the hands of the new regime, he said.

"Apart from that the Taliban have their own really serious shortcomings, there is also a brain drain that Afghanistan's experiencing," he said.

"There's a flight of capital, a lot of capital taken out of the country. So all these things that make it very difficult."

Amnesty International last week reported the Taliban had already commenced massacres of the mostly-Shia Hazara minority, and Mr Saikal warned the prospect of sectarian bloodshed was high.

He said it was possible the conflict could draw in regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Iran, which were already driving a bloody war in Yemen.

"I think there is every chance the country could possibly move down the path of civil war, with Afghanistan's neighbours being involved," he said.

"One should not assume at this point that the conflict is over."

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