Higher than anticipated economic growth has quashed fears of a double-dip recession, however persistent lockdowns from the Delta wave are fuelling concerns over how big the financial fall will be in the September quarter.
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National account figures released on Wednesday revealed Australia's gross domestic product rose 0.7 per cent over the June quarter, with household consumption and investment remaining resilient despite 29 days of the quarter being impacted by various lockdowns across the nation.
While the figures beat expectations, federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg warned persistent shutdowns would damage September figures, flagging Treasury was forecasting a GDP fall to minus 2 per cent.
"What these numbers show is that our economy remains remarkably resilient, even in the face of repeated lockdowns," Mr Fydenberg said.
"[Wednesday's] national account numbers do not change the fact that our economy has some very difficult days ahead.
"The September quarter consumption has been constrained by the fact that two states have seen lockdowns ... that will impact no doubt not just investment but also consumption."
GDP over the period did slow compared to the March quarter's 1.9 per cent rise, however the June result came in higher than the market consensus at 0.4 per cent.
On a year-on-year basis, GDP rose 9.6 per cent, with the underlying strength in the economy now 1.6 per cent larger than it was before the coronavirus pandemic.
The ACT's state demand rose 0.9 over the quarter, the lowest compared to any other state or territory.
Mr Frydenberg said state premiers threatening to deviate from the national plan, which would see them open up once vaccination targets hit 70 and 80 per cent, would have dire consequences for business viability and jobs growth.
"If we don't stick to the national plan, businesses will close. If we don't stick to the national plan jobs will be lost. If we don't stick to the national plan, our debt burden will increase," he said.
Worse than expected early indicators did stir some concern with economists that a pullback may occur, however strong public expenditure and better than expected consumer spending aided the rise.
Net exports were a major detractor due to supply disruptions and weaker volumes, while profit boosts in the mining and agriculture sectors assisted growth to remain positive.
NAB Economics said lockdowns tightening a noose around consumption levels would see the September quarter print a negative result, which it believes will see GDP fall by around 3.5 per cent, then rebound in the final three months of the year.
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NAB chief economist Alan Oster said the easing of restrictions was dependent on the supply of vaccines and their uptake.
"Precisely when restrictions will start to ease will depend on when vaccination targets are reached, which is uncertain," Mr Oster said in a note.
"While the pace of recovery will be dependent on how gradually restrictions are eased and whether households remain cautious, even assuming some reopening in Q4 it is likely GDP will remain lower over the second half."
On an international stage, Australia's relative overall GDP growth since the start of the pandemic is larger than that of any of the G7 nations, which include the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and France.
However, Labor treasury spokesman Jim Chalmers said the figures showed a slowing down in the economy from even before the Bondi cluster sparked the third wave, and quarterly growth compared to other OECD nations was much lower.
"Australia's growth is now slower than the United States, United Kingdom and OECD average, and the worst of the economic pain caused by the Morrison government's incompetence is yet to come," Dr Chalmers said.
Mr Oster from NAB also noted border closures were creating uncertainty, and would continue to impact both consumption and exports levels.
ANZ economist Felicity Emmett said the strength of household consumption during the June period did suggest consumer spending would rebound quickly after restrictions eased, but warned further fiscal stimulus by the federal government was likely needed to underpin the recovery into next year.
"Domestically, the economic impact of moving away from 'zero Covid' to 'living with Covid' is unpredictable," Ms Emmett said.
"Further fiscal policy stimulus is likely to be required to underpin a strong recovery next year, and the RBA still has the option to defer the timing of its tapering."
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