As someone with a history of quoting American presidents, Prime Minister Scott Morrison would recognise Reagan's famous line, "You and I have a rendezvous with destiny."
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But what exactly is destiny for Morrison? If it is a triumphant re-election in 2022, he must confront an unavoidable geopolitical issue that has felled numerous prime ministers in the past.
Over the past decade, climate change and energy policy has played a decisive role in Australian political futures. As result, it has largely remained a muddied and carefully managed political matter. But with a federal election over the horizon, Morrison and his diplomats must navigate a series of international gatherings that risk waking the proverbial kraken of Australian politics.
A lack of greater commitment on climate change risks further undermining Australia's international reputation in this space, already significantly tainted by a perception of inaction. However, while many Australians favour greater action on climate change, those fervently opposed continue to threaten the stability of the federal government.
As a country that proudly calls itself a middle power, Australia stands increasingly isolated on the international stage on this matter. Any space provided by the previous Trump administration for Australia to abscond from responsibility has rapidly disappeared under Biden.
In advance of COP26, many countries will use the sidelines of this month's United Nations General Assembly to build a degree of climate change consensus. This includes reports that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is planning to raise climate change matters with China's President Xi Jinping.
From there, things will only get trickier for Australia. On September 24, Morrison will have to navigate the first-ever Quad leaders' summit at the White House. This is a significant gathering, and its outcomes will be monitored around the world. In its press release, the White House singled out climate change as a key discussion point - one which was contrastingly omitted from Scott Morrison's statement confirming the Quad meeting.
The momentous new AUKUS defence pact on nuclear submarines between the US, UK and Australia may not be directly related to climate change, but it can't be unpacked from the forward events program that requires Australia, the UK, and the US to be largely singing from the same hymn sheet.
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Australia will stand naked on the international stage if it doesn't make some concessions, but as one door closes, another may open. Global appetite for substantive climate reform remains plagued by diverging domestic political ambitions around the world, not just in Australia. COVID-19 has exacerbated the dividing lines between developed and developing countries, compounded by asymmetric economic recoveries and the unequal and lethargic distribution of vaccines.
Further, it's increasingly unlikely that the US and China will be able to isolate climate change as a matter for co-operation. US Climate Special Envoy John Kerry has struggled to make any substantial breakthroughs with China, and neither the US nor China will sacrifice their less environmentally friendly domestic industries on the altar of climate change at the cost of both domestic political blowback and the odds that the other will do the same. China speaks a strong game on climate change, but it has financed a huge majority of coal plants built today, and continues to build dozens upon dozens to power its energy-hungry industries.
All this means that Australia may well again find the space to hide, given the multilateral ordeal the summit will likely be. A master of shaping the political narrative, the Morrison government would be wise to adopt the policy narrative that the Biden administration took with the appointment of John Kerry - of climate change being a matter of national security.
As America's special envoy for climate change, Kerry became the first person on the National Security Council to focus solely on climate, pivoting the conversation beyond the traditional realms of energy and environment to one centred on the national security of the United States and its broader geopolitical strategy.
Political considerations will dictate Australia's policy footing at COP26. Navigating the litany of international meetings and summits ahead is a challenge that stands between Morrison and what he wants to be his destiny.
- Philip Citowicki is a foreign policy commentator and was an adviser to former Australian foreign minister Julie Bishop.