If you want to know why Labor won't - perhaps doesn't deserve - to win the coming election, look no further than the party's reaction to the government's decision to buy nuclear submarines. Its leadership was summoned to Scott Morrison's office just hours before the announcement, told what was happening, and dutifully marched in lock-step straight back down the corridor. With the exception of some comments from Foreign Affairs spokesperson Penny Wong we've barely heard a peep from them since.
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Labor's reaction: "It's very disappointing to see the Prime Minister play the politics again". It's as if the party thinks the decision is all about them, and that reveals exactly why the party remains on point to stay in opposition for another term. Or two.
This is the most dramatic moment in defence policy in well over a decade. It goes to fundamental questions of defence industry, capability, and readiness. It makes simple, crucial, and pivotal choices about embedding the country completely within an alliance framework with Washington or charting an independent course within our neighbourhood. It escalates strategic issues to the forefront of the national agenda, by simultaneously suggesting war is immanent (and we need nuclear submarines now) yet distant (so we can put off even thinking about what submarine we'll acquire for another 18 months).
Working strictly within the logic underpinning this announcement, purchasing of a US Virginia-class submarine (SSN) makes sense. Our need for subs could easily be slipped into America's rolling program. But this leaves the question - why has Boris Johnson inserted himself into this decision and what's in it for him? The most recent British experience building SSNs, the Astute class, became a massive disaster. A complete re-working of the design was required, incorporating massive cost-blowouts and four-year production delays for a boat inferior to the US vessels.
London (unlike Paris) merely retains historic links to the Pacific. It isn't - and never will be - a local player in this part of the world. This deal links Canberra with a nostalgic world where the globe is dotted with countries coloured red. Johnson must be enjoying his cup of tea while laughing at Morrison's naivety. Come in spinner!
Threesomes are always awkward liaisons because the junior partner will inevitably end up getting screwed by the others. Simply deconstructing this aspect of the so-called 'alliance' is an obvious beginning for Labor but Labor's Defence spokesman, Brendan O'Connor, has remained quiescent. His contribution to this debate so far has been a call for 'a Senate inquiry'. Wow!
Why doesn't the party have a policy on such a critical issue; one reaching far beyond narrow technical questions of submarines and industry? Perhaps Anthony Albanese thinks he's clever by not snapping at the obvious bait being dangled. He might have been concerned by opposing Morrison he'd turn the election into a snap choice about national security, which is a conservative strength. But saying nothing isn't an answer because nobody ever won a game by abandoning the field. This is a critical issue which goes to the core of Australia's future in the Asian century. It beggars belief Labor can't come up with even a simple alternative when the PM's policy is simply to dump the submarine build into the too-hard tray and put it off until after the election (presumably to minimise the electoral fall-out in South Australia). Perhaps the opposition doesn't deserve to be elected after all.
Labor still hasn't managed to drill two basic things into the electorate: that this country in the midst of an existential crisis and they have a plan to fix it.
This is just the first of what will be a series of sudden pivots before the election that will succeed in positioning Labor as inadequate. Already defence is moving on to the environment. Just because Morrison once waved a lump of coal around in Parliament doesn't mean he won't throw the rock away the second it no longer serves his purposes.
Aware the rest of the world will no longer allow him to get away with the equivocation and evasion he's so successfully practised here, the PM's rolling out a new plan. It's not driven by the underpinning realisation climate change is a real and critical issue for our future; but neither is Labor's ersatz policy, which is just predicated on winning votes by being 'greener' than the government. The opposition thought it could wait for disillusionment to flow through the electorate and deliver it government. It had bargained without Morrison's capacity for re-invention. It might all be marketing but that will be irrelevant.
Labor still hasn't managed to drill two basic things into the electorate: that this country is in the midst of an existential crisis and they have a plan to fix it. Perhaps they don't believe it or don't have an answer. With the massive advantages of incumbency behind him the PM is rapidly cobbling together a plan that makes it appear as if he can deliver for both the economy and the environment.
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Reality is another matter, but that doesn't matter to shameless Scotty from Marketing; he's a man who lives in the moment. Realising he needs to pirouette from the discredited ideas of the past, like a ballerina Morrison's slipping on a ballet tutu and learning a new tune. Initially the result might look similar to a cartoon hippopotamus cavorting to music, but he doesn't care. It worked for Walt Disney and the PM knows it will probably work for him, too.
Meanwhile Albanese's moving at a snail's pace. It's as if he's a First World War general, planning a deliberate assault and using slow-moving heavy artillery to crumble the government's static defences, one by one. By the time his attack goes in he'll discover his enemy's already abandoned their positions, moved around his flank, and are responding with blitzkrieg-like thrusts in his rear. Labor will be left exposed and bypassed.
The latest opinion polls show the opposition up to six points ahead. Two points will vanish in the booths as people stick to what they know, leaving Morrison the task of clawing back one point in each week of the campaign. Difficult but hardly impossible. Ask Bill Shorten.
- Nicholas Stuart is a Canberra writer and regular columnist.