Conversations around Australia's property market have turned to the prospect of a cooling market, but experts warn buyers shouldn't expect prices to fall any time soon.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
$0/
(min cost $0)
or signup to continue reading
Across the country, the growth of property prices is slowing. The monthly price growth in Australian dwellings is now 1.5 per cent, compared to 2.8 per cent when growth peaked in March, CoreLogic data shows.
In Canberra, the market is cooling but not to the same extent as areas like Sydney and Perth, according to CoreLogic Asia Pacific head of research Tim Lawless.
In the market's peak, Canberra dwelling values were rising 2.8 per cent month-on-month in March, while the most recent figures show monthly dwelling growth is now rising at 1.9 per cent. In comparison, Sydney's monthly growth rate was nearly 4 per cent in March and has since dropped to 1.5 per cent.
MORE PROPERTY NEWS:
"Canberra has been a little bit more resilient but we are seeing some signs that conditions probably will slow further from here. One of those signs would simply be the amount of stock that's being advertised for sale; listing numbers across Canberra are up about 44 per cent since early September," Mr Lawless said.
Economist Saul Eslake said while the market looks to be cooling, it doesn't mean prices are going to fall.
"House prices don't fall very often in most cities, unless there's something really fundamental happening," he said.
"For example, Perth and Darwin went through quite protracted periods of price falls after the peaks of their resources investment booms. Melbourne had quite a nasty one in the early 1990s after what was a particularly severe recession."
Right now, the biggest risk to property prices is the likelihood that interest rates will increase, Mr Eslake said.
"The markets are pricing [for a rise] next year, the Reserve Bank's pushing back very strongly on that and still saying the most likely date is 2024," he said.
"I think around the June quarter of 2023 is the most likely time but fixed rates have already started to rise and that will dampen some demand."
How will a slowdown impact the market?
While rising stock levels may help to ease some of the urgency that buyers are feeling, Mr Lawless said Canberra remains a seller's market.
"As stock levels rise you'd have to argue that homes might take a little bit longer to sell. Vendors might have to discount their prices or negotiate a little bit more, which is good news for buyers," he said.
"Though I think you could still very much describe this as a seller's market. We're still seeing homes selling very rapidly across Canberra, just not quite as quickly as what they were earlier this year."
IN COVID-19 NEWS:
Mr Lawless said this time next year, things might start to look different.
"We're likely to have seen stock levels normalise further from where they are at the moment and probably some further heat coming out of the market simply due to the fact that housing is becoming more and more unaffordable and we could even see credit conditions tighten early next year," he said.
"Chances are that the market will be quite different through the second half of 2022 but I still think values will probably be rising. We don't expect housing values nationally ... to fall until we start to see the cash rate lifting and the timing for that is still highly uncertain."
What does it mean for buyers?
Pete Wargent, co-founder buyer's agents network BuyersBuyers, said there will likely be less competition in the property market next year.
"We've had almost an artificial market this year because a lot of vendors just haven't felt confident enough to bring property to market for sale. But finally we're seeing sellers come to the market now so it should be a bit more balanced in the new year," he said.
Mr Wargent said the best strategy for buyers is to keep a long-term view, despite market predictions.
"Quite often when people get buyer's remorse it's often if they get involved in a bidding war at an auction or they make a decision in haste and pay far too much," he said.
"So if you can avoid getting yourself involved in that kind of situation and keep a cool head, that's always good advice."
Our journalists work hard to provide local, up-to-date news to the community. This is how you can continue to access our trusted content:
- Bookmark canberratimes.com.au
- Download our app
- Make sure you are signed up for our breaking and regular headlines newsletters
- Follow us on Twitter
- Follow us on Instagram