Labor's 2030 emissions reductions target of 43 per cent is an each-way bet unlikely to inspire those pushing for stronger action on climate change or to mollify those fearful a too-rapid transition away from fossil fuels will cost them their livelihoods.
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It is a step back from the more ambitious 45 per cent target Bill Shorten took to the 2019 election and well short of the 50 per cent 2030 target many nations took to COP-26.
The target, released ahead of a Friday press conference that added little to climate initiatives previously announced by Labor, is only 9 per cent above the 35 per cent reduction Australia is already on track to achieve.
Despite the hype any and all the climate initiatives introduced by a future Labor government between 2022 and 2030 would likely only increase the level of emissions reductions by less than 10 per cent. That's hardly aspirational.
Anthony Albanese summed the target, and the policy, up best when, in response to a question, he said: "It's a modest policy, we don't pretend it is a radical policy." He's absolutely right. It's also a policy that has a lot to be modest about.
The target is particularly disappointing given a majority of states and territories are already committed to a 50 per cent - or more - reduction in emissions by 2030. The NSW Liberal government recently adopted a 50 per target and the ACT is committed to a 65 to 75 per cent cut.
While Labor is ending the year with an 11-point lead in the two-party preferred vote there is nothing like an election date to firm up voter opinion.
If, as its climate policy suggests, Labor has settled on a cautiously "Liberal-lite" suite of policies in the run-up to the poll it is taking a big risk.
Unless the Opposition is brave enough to offer significant points of difference there is no compelling reason to vote it into office.
While the ALP was punished for the ambitious platform it took to the electorate almost three years ago, and is wary of making the same mistake, it has to promise to do something.
Christmas is just weeks away. After that most of the country will doze off until after Australia Day. With a disappointingly low level of climate policy ambition, and plans to abolish negative gearing and tax rebates for franking credits already dead in the water, the ALP is running out of time to make its case.
The problem is compounded by the fact Anthony Albanese's approval rating falls far short of support for the ALP in the polls. Midway through November Mr Morrison was still the preferred PM by 46 per cent to 38 per cent. The last time Mr Albanese was ahead as preferred PM was in February 2020. He just hasn't been able to cut through.
An obvious way to have addressed this would have been the adoption of an ambitious suite of climate policies opinion polls have shown would resonate with voters in every electorate in the country. This is a global crisis. The world is burning. If now is not the time for "radical" policies then when?
As it is the ALP seems only slightly more enthusiastic about reversing climate change than its opponents. Regardless of who wins the election we will be getting a government that has had to be reluctantly prodded into some form of face-saving action.
Whatever happened to the days when Australia was a world leader on the environment? When we led the world in pushing for the abolition of whaling? When we were one of the first nations to ban fluorocarbons because of the hole in the ozone layer?
While vision and leadership have always been rare commodities in politics they now appear to be increasingly absent.
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