Ukraine is destined to become a member of the European Union, Brussels' envoy in Canberra says, and Russia should expect further isolation over the invasion of its neighbour.
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EU ambassador to Australia Michael Pulch has also told The Canberra Times the "most biting" sanctions ever imposed by the bloc will cripple the Russian economy and undermine Mr Putin's standing at home.
Moscow's full-scale assault has shocked international observers, reshaping European security calculations virtually overnight.
And despite Mr Putin's ambition to install a puppet government in Kyiv, Mr Pulch said the invasion is creating a Ukraine clambering to escape Russia's orbit.
"Ukraine belongs to Europe," he said.
"Over time, the relationship will go in that direction. They want in, and we will also want them to join."
'We can hurt you'
French President Emmanuel Macron launched an eleventh-hour bid to avoid war, travelling to Moscow to sit down with Mr Putin in February. But Moscow's attack has obliterated any pretense at a diplomatic resolution.
"Basically, everything has backfired [for Putin]. The moment you start an invasion, you lose control," Mr Pulch said.
"Once you start a war, we stop the discussion and we concentrate on how we can hurt you."
The international response has certainly hurt Moscow.
The Russian rouble collapsed and inflation soared after the Russian Central Bank's assets were frozen, preventing its clients from accessing their overseas funds. A host of Russian institutions were also cut off from international banking system SWIFT.
Mr Pulch said the fact a small circle of oligarchs dominates Russia's economy was helpful in "personalising" the sanctions.
Many have dual passports, but have seen their assets frozen and their ability to travel freely across the continent revoked.
"Oligarchs all want a safe haven outside Russia, and that safe haven is Europe ... [so] the isolation comes from every direction," Mr Pulch said.
The main aim of sanctions is to cripple the Kremlin's war effort to prompt a withdrawal. And as they are "now starting to bite the man on the street", Mr Pulch believed anger within Russia could neuter Mr Putin's authority.
"If there is no support in Russian society, that will have an impact on government decisions as well. It's not a democracy, obviously, but this impacts nonetheless," Mr Pulch said.
Cultural sanctions - Russia has been booted from a host of sporting events - could also be key in "cutting through" the regime's propaganda, he said.
"That will help [Russians] who still believe the narrative of its government to realise that the world does not believe [it]," he said.
'Pariah state'
Even in the unlikely event of a Kremlin backdown, Mr Pulch said it was "difficult to see" any relationship with a Putin-led regime being restored.
"They are being treated as the pariah state that they are ... What we've seen is a momentous event in European history," he said.
"This will have an impact on how we see Russia, and how we deal with Russia as an EU, as Europeans, in fact the world, in decades to come."
The EU also banned 70 per cent of exports from Belarus to the bloc, after Minsk allowed Russian troops to launch their invasion from its territory.
Mr Pulch conceded the bloc, which relies on Russia for 40 per cent of its gas, is not immune from the impact its reponse.
But the sanctions were drawn up and imposed within weeks, with Germany reversing its long-standing opposition to arming foreign countries within hours.
"We were able to put together the most biting sanctions that this group has ever agreed on, despite the fact that some [EU states] realise that will hurt them as well," he said.
"It's extraordinary how many of our topics, that were difficult to solve only a few weeks ago, are now solved one-by-one."
'These are our brothers'
European Union membership has proved vexed in Ukrainian politics for decades, toppling leaders and sparking violence in the country's east since 2014.
And as Russian forces continued their assault this week, Kyiv filed an application to join the bloc, a process which typically takes years.
"What you will get is, in whatever form, a Ukraine that will for decades to come try their very best to get out of the Russian orbit and into the European orbit," Mr Pulch said.
Part of Mr Putin's rhetoric is that Russians and Ukrainians are a single people, but Mr Pulch said the brutalisation of his neighbours undermines that claim.
"He has lost the narrative [that] these are [our] brothers," he said.
Ukraine has also sought to become a fully-fledged member of NATO; membership would have forced the pact into a military response to Russia's attack.
Mr Putin has long railed against NATO's expansion eastwards, which he frames as a threat to Russian security, and the Kremlin has warned nearby Finland and Sweden not to join the military pact.
Mr Pulch said the autocrat might have gained more sympathy by dismissing NATO as relic of the Cold War, while ensuring Russia operated as "civilized" part of Europe.
"He wanted to get NATO dissolved, or crippled, or ineffective. [But] NATO is now more relevant than since the fall of the Berlin Wall," he said.
'Concerns Australia directly'
Australia joined the EU and its other allies in swiftly imposing sanctions, before announcing this week it will send $70m worth of lethal and non-lethal aid to Ukraine.
Thirty-eight Australians were killed in 2014 when the passenger flight MH-17 was shot down in an area of Donbass controlled by pro-Russian separatists.
The Kremlin denied playing any role in the attack, which prompted tensions between Canberra and Moscow - including then-Prime Minister Tony Abbott famously threatening to "shirtfront" Mr Putin.
Mr Pulch said Australia was immediately alert to the implications of Russia's invasion on global order.
"The Australian government very early on recognised that this is not an issue in a faraway country, that this is something that concerns Australia directly and immediately," he said.
"These sanctions actually only work because we work together."
Mr Pulch, who met with Pacific Islands representatives on the invitation of Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade secretary Kathryn Campbell, said Australia was key in marshalling its neighbours towards a unified response.
Only four other states - North Korea, Syria, Eritrea, and Belarus - voted against condemning the Kremlin's invasion, and Mr Pulch insisted "every vote counts".
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Reports have suggested China had knowledge of Russia's intentions and, amid concern over Taiwan, Beijing has resisted condemning the assault.
Mr Pulch warned the global community could not view the Ukraine crisis in isolation.
"Russia spreads over two continents. It is part of Asia. Whatever happens in Europe has an impact on the Indo-Pacific region, and the theatre here as well," he said.
Finn McHugh
Finn McHugh has been federal political reporter for The Canberra Times since July 2021. He joined the Canberra Press Gallery in 2019 where he was executive producer of Sky News's AM Agenda, before joining NCA NewsWire as a federal political reporter. He has previously interned at the Kuwait Times.
Finn McHugh has been federal political reporter for The Canberra Times since July 2021. He joined the Canberra Press Gallery in 2019 where he was executive producer of Sky News's AM Agenda, before joining NCA NewsWire as a federal political reporter. He has previously interned at the Kuwait Times.
