For former rugby great David Pocock, running for office is a "play the man"-type situation as he zeroes in on the ACT's sole federal Liberal representative, Senator Zed Seselja.
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Pocock, who's running for the Senate as an independent, wants Seselja's seat - and demands to know after nine years in the job, "What has he been doing?"
To win an ACT Senate seat, you need just over one-third of the vote. A mad scramble is now on between Mr Pocock, fellow independent Kim Rubenstein and the Greens' Tjanara Goreng Goreng to become the main challenger to the ACT's political status quo; the two seats have been returned to the Liberal and Labor parties since 1975.
The ABC's election analyst Antony Green says Mr Pocock may just have the big-name factor it will take to cause the territory's biggest election upset in decades. But he says there are other factors which may favour the major parties.
In an interview with The Canberra Times ahead of his campaign launch on Sunday, former Wallabies captain Pocock talks tradies, promises a centrist approach and reveals he will push for a greater slice of multibillion-dollar federal infrastructure funding for the ACT. As a first measure, he has committed to reopening the AIS Arena for sport and live music.
"What I'm hearing from Canberrans is that we need our fair share of federal funding when it comes to infrastructure," Pocock says.
"Not being marginal, we just miss out. Being the least-known capital city in the developed world, it's no wonder ... you can't actually hold big conferences. There's not a convention centre that can do it. Sporting facilities with the Caps [Canberra Capitals] having to go and find somewhere to play - all these things rely on federal funding."
The Zimbabwean-born aspirant politician says Canberrans are proud of the capital, but are "sick of the way we're talked about as 'the Bubble'" and want to "be heard, valued and represented on a national level".
He backs territory rights and increasing territory representation in the Senate.
"Currently, with two senators, you want both of them actually going into bat for Canberra on the issues that are important to us," he says.
In addition to Seselja, the long-time environmental campaigner is up against Labor frontbencher and former ACT Chief Minister Katy Gallagher, Professor Rubenstein, who is a constitutional lawyer renowned for being a leading light on gender reform, and Dr Goreng Goreng, an academic, unionist and former public servant who leaked confidential information about the community of Mutitjulu in 2006.
But Pocock is targeting the conservative Liberal Seselja, and he believes he has his measure.
"I think that people are realising that to actually be better represented, we maybe have to look elsewhere," he says.
"There's a frustration that over the last nine years he hasn't delivered for Canberrans. Not only has he not delivered, he's actually argued against things like territory rights, which the vast majority of Canberrans want."
It is clear Senator Seselja is responding to Mr Pocock's arrival on the scene more than any other, criticising him as a radical green and too much of a risk to Canberra. He has pointed to Mr Pocock's arrest eight years ago near a NSW coal mine as evidence of his radical nature, but the candidate remains proud of his past environmental actions.
"Right at the last minute, he's finally talking about things that Canberrans want," Mr Pocock says.
"The reality is he's been in government for nine years. What has he been doing?"
ABC election analyst Antony Green says big names matter, and one of the world's top sportsmen has one.
"Having a name assists anyone in elections. The same as all these independents in lower house seats. Nobody votes for an independent they don't know," Green says.
"They will vote for a party candidate they don't know, but not for an independent. Name is critical to the success of any independent, and that helps David Pocock ... still, though, he has to get people who traditionally vote Liberal or Labor to vote for him. You've got to get people to break the habit of a lifetime in voting for somebody else."
So what would Mr Pocock do differently to the major parties, if elected as an independent to the Senate? He's only revealed a little of what his intentions are, offering a "trust and integrity" platform which backs a federal ICAC, truth in political advertising laws and restoring funding for the national audit office.
He says he is offering an independent voice to frustrated Canberrans and a pragmatic, centrist approach to climate change.
"This is an economic opportunity we can't afford to miss," he says.
"If you're a tradie, this is a gold rush coming if we can actually have the right policy settings that provide certainty for this transition to renewables and become a leader in the space, develop all these industries in the areas that are currently really reliant on fossil fuels for jobs."
It is a demographic he wants to talk more about.
"For tradies, I think there's a lack of valuing the trades and funding for upskilling," he says.
"The next generations of tradies ... are going to play an enormous role in helping Australia rewire our homes and build the grid for the future, which is coming whether we like it or not."
The other key Canberra demographic, of course, is the public service.
"The conversation shouldn't be around how big or small the public service is, which we see every election cycle, right? Depending on who's in government," he says.
"It should be about the quality of the public service. People want good services delivered.
"We should be really proud of what public servants do for the country, and what places like the CSIRO do for us."
Mr Green expects the two independent candidates and the Greens will take votes from both Labor and the Liberal Party and split the "others" vote - but he suspects there will be a "strong flow" of preferences between them as well.
"The Labor Party has never had a problem, because they always get a certain result, they always get one seat," he explained.
"Once upon a time, the question was whether they might actually win two, but it's more likely a third party would now win rather than two Labor senators.
"The question is whether the Liberal Party vote holds up now. They've drifted below 33 per cent a couple of times historically, but not enough to be threatened."
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The strength of the 2022 candidates has certainly stirred things up in the ACT Senate race - but one candidate in particular would have to do really well to have a chance to knock off an incumbent.
"You need 33 per cent of the vote, is what you're racing for. I think there's a strong possibility that you are going to see the vote split three ways between Labor, Liberal and others generically," Mr Green says.
"I suspect the others will get more than a third of a quota between them. The question is whether they can coalesce, or aggregate that vote amongst themselves, or whether some of it will lead to the two major parties and ensure they continue to win a seat."
Both Mr Pocock and Professor Rubenstein have aimed for party status to get the advantage of above-the-line voting. Mr Pocock's party application is currently under review by the Australian Electoral Commission, while the Kim for Canberra party has been given the green light.
Mr Green says the new Senate voting system has greatly diminished the power of preferences. In the ACT there aren't many groups on the ballot paper, and he says there tend to be more preferences allocated.
"If the Liberal vote drops below a third, below 33 per cent, there is the possibility that those preferences will be more important. The question is how strongly they flow," he says.
The arrival of Mr Pocock has certainly stirred up an already interesting ACT Senate race. Australian voters are already turning away from the major parties. Mr Pocock says it's time for a change in ACT.
"This is what I'm hearing from people in Canberra: people are sick of every issue being politicised and they want a more sensible centrist approach," he says.
"And that's what I want to be part of."
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