The ACT budget's bottom line is $475 million better off than expected over the next four years, with a "cautiously optimistic" territory government pointing to a strong post-lockdown economic recovery driving better-than-expected revenue.
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The deficit is now expected to peak at $770.2 million this financial year, down from an expected peak forecast in the October budget of $951.5 million. It will fall to $371.9 million in 2024-25.
But the budget review assumes there are no new large-scale outbreaks of COVID-19 in the ACT or Australia, the war in Ukraine stops having an affect on economic activity after the September quarter and the Reserve Bank does not raise interest rates early.
The government has also banked on higher population growth estimates, with territory expected to grow at a pace of 1.25 per cent a year from 2022-23.
Chief Minister and Treasurer Andrew Barr on Thursday revealed the ACT's mid-year budget review would add another $185.8 million to the territory's infrastructure spend, meaning the program was worth $6.6 billion over five years.
However, the territory's opposition has accused the government of not addressing housing affordability in the mid-year review.
Total revenue in the territory is $855.8 million higher over four years to 2024-25 than was forecast in the October budget, which Mr Barr said demonstrated significant recovery in economic activity.
But expenses are also up by $375.8 million over four years, with the government pointing to extra funding needed for the territory's pandemic response.
Both health and education will receive the lion's share of funding in the mid-year review with $126 million given to the ACT public health system and the already-announced $150 million to school infrastructure.
Mr Barr said the pathway out of the pandemic remained uncertain, and there were other risks more clearly on the horizon.
"As we look to the federal budget and the federal election to provide a further degree of certainty, what we've seen is that we've experienced a V-shaped recovery," he said.
"There are still risks, they are domestic and international ... all in all today is good news but we remain cautiously optimistic about the future and we need to constantly monitor, it's a period of significant uncertainty."
Mr Barr said other factors that would have the greatest impact on the government's outlook include new COVID variants, the length of material effects on economic activity from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and changes to the interest rate.
But the emergence of new variants was not built into the assumptions made in the budget, instead this was presented as a downside risk.
Mr Barr said while the future of the virus remained uncertain unless there was a dramatic variation it was unlikely that the territory would have to revert to responses used in 2020 and 2021, which would have a greater impact on the budget bottom line.
"New variants have emerged, they haven't necessarily been more serious in terms of their ultimate public health outcomes some have been more infectious clearly, but they have not resulted in a major increase in hospitalisation of people with intensive care with severe disease," he said.
"The other variable is, of course, the ongoing effectiveness of vaccines to provide protection for people."
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The government has given more than $20 million to schools for additional cleaning services, distribution of masks, hand sanitiser, rapid antigen tests and ventilation improvements in classrooms.
Mr Barr said the territory's investment program would grow to $6.6 billion from investments made in the mid-year budget review.
This includes $150 million for a new school in Strathnairn and improvements to Narrabundah College and Garran Primary School. There is also funding for planning for a food organics and garden organics waste recovery facility, more park and ride facilities and money for the electrification of the Woden bus depot.
The government will give an extra $13 million to the government's healthy waterways projects.
The budget review will give $2.5 million for homelessness services, which will extend the operation of the Winter Lodge from six months to one year.
There will also be $3.7 million for non-Australian residents to access a pandemic leave disaster payment.
Mr Barr also announced more than $18 million in police funding for specialist protective services, including tactical responses, intelligence and search and rescue capability.
More than $100 million has also been earmarked for the ongoing COVID-19 response, with health authorities bracing for a rise in cases over the winter period.
An extra $18.2 million has been allocated for the Canberra hospital expansion to cover the cost of commissioning the new critical services building.
Opposition Leader Elizabeth Lee was critical of the government for not addressing housing affordability in the mid-year review, saying there was nothing to give Canberrans a choice when it came to housing.
"There is nothing in this budget review that will give any confidence to Canberrans that they can work toward a dream of owning their own home and that is disappointing," she said.
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