But payments designed to prevent states and territories going backwards during a six-year transition period for the way the tax is distributed will mean the ACT does not lose out on $5 million.

The Commonwealth Grants Commission's assessment of GST relativities show the ACT would receive about $1.09 for every $1 collected by the tax in 2022-23, down from $1.16 in 2021-22, without the no-worse-off payments.

The ACT's share of the pool without the top-up payments would fall from 2 per cent to 1.8 per cent, with $1421 million paid in 2022-23 compared to $1426 million in 2021-22.

"Even with pool growth, but excluding no worse off payments, its estimated GST distribution in 2022-23 would decrease by $5 million, or 0.4 per cent," the commission said in a statement.

"It is expected that the no worse off payments would result in the ACT receiving more revenue overall from the GST distribution arrangements in 2022-23 than it received in 2021-22."

The commission pointed to the ACT's relative wage costs falling alongside above average property sales growth as the reason for the territory's share of the tax pool falling.

Wage growth in the ACT was lower than the national average between 2017-18 and 2020-21, which decreased the territory's share of the GST.

"These changes were partly offset by increased value of mining production, mainly in Western Australia, along with population growth slowing by less than the national average, increasing its relative need for new infrastructure," the commission said.

"The combined effect of blended relativities and the GST floor would reduce the ACT's distribution by $69 million. Across the transition period, this impact would be ameliorated by no worse off payments."

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The ACT's mid-year budget review, tabled in the Legislative Assembly on Thursday and finalised before the Commonwealth Grants Commission's updated relativities, forecast $1473 million in GST revenue for the ACT in 2021-22 and $1490 million in 2022-23.

"The estimates of GST revenue are sensitive to changes in the GST pool and the ACT's GST relativity. A one per cent reduction in the GST pool in any year would reduce the ACT's GST share by between $14.1 million and $16.5 million, depending on the year affected," the mid-year budget review papers said.

ACT Chief Minister Andrew Barr on Thursday said an "employee's market" would help drive up wages, while he indicated upcoming bargaining rounds for territory public servants would also deliver pay rises.

The ACT mid-year budget review increased the expected wage price index in the ACT from the forecasts that were included in the territory's October budget.

The index is expected to grow by 2.75 per cent in 2021-22, which is a 1 per cent upward revision compared to the estimates in the 2021-22 budget.

The index is expected to be 3 per cent a year from 2022-23 onwards on a baseline scenario, but could vary between 2.75 and 3.75 per cent.

It was expected to be about 2 per cent a year over the forward estimates in the October budget forecasts.

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