Anthony Albanese easily possesses the qualifications and experience to become prime minister. Whether the public is interested in those qualifications is another matter. The popularity of aspirants to become PM is unrelated to their qualifications. Popularity has an intangible quality. You have it or you don't. Albanese is not enormously popular; but he has enough popularity to become prime minister. The polls demonstrate this.
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Yet Albanese is currently suffering under a concerted attack on his credentials; from the government, from media commentators and from some who profess support for the Labor side of politics.
It is easy to collect random evidence in headlines of these attacks. "Who is Anthony Albanese?"; "Voters are still figuring out what to make of Anthony Albanese"; "Let the real Anthony Albanese stand up". "We're not perfect but you know us" (Scott Morrison).
Let's get Albanese's qualifications and experience out of the way first. He has been the Member for Grayndler since 1996 (Morrison entered parliament in 2007). He entered shadow cabinet in 2001 and became manager of opposition business, a key parliamentary role, in 2006.
During the last Labor government he was a cabinet minister for the six years that the party was in office, including holding major portfolios and serving three months as deputy prime minister. He has been opposition leader for the full three years since the 2019 election.
Years in parliament in themselves don't mean anything more than longevity, but other than not holding the Treasury portfolio (something the government keeps harping on), Albanese has an impressively comprehensive political resume. Remember that Gough Whitlam, Bob Hawke and Kevin Rudd had never even served in government prior to their election as prime minister.
John Howard and Scott Morrison did serve as treasurer before becoming prime minister, though Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull did not. Nor did the party icon, Sir Robert Menzies.
The attack on Albanese's economic credentials should be dismissed as just a confected party-political attack. Criticise him for something else but not for that.
Another way to read the denigration of Albanese is that it is a commentary on his so-called small target strategy. This strategy was born of Labor's devastating 2019 defeat under Bill Shorten. Albanese, fortified by the conclusions of the party's own Emerson-Weatherell post-election report that Labor suffered from being too big a target, has resolutely kept his powder dry. Not only has he wiped the slate clean, but his new policies have been cautious and moderate, in areas such as taxation and fighting climate change.
This self-imposed strategy was accompanied by the forced imposition of relevance deprivation during the COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID factor reinforced the profile of state premiers and a string of them were returned to office, including in Queensland and Western Australia. Opposition leaders got no airtime at all and were reduced to a running joke by Sammy J. Many of them were dropped after election defeats.
His small target approach was queried by some commentators who claimed that it might backfire on election day because voters wouldn't see any difference between the government and the opposition. The opposition may not be attractive enough to voters to dislodge the government.
It always bothered many on the Labor side of politics too and some commentators claimed to be reporting on the lingering unease of Labor insiders, including from within Albanese's own front bench. Some of these, of course, were responsible for Shorten's big picture strategy. This reflected a hankering after boldness that can be found in all parties.
The Labor version of this is especially virulent. It hankers after a messiah who can lead the party out of the wilderness. It longs for a party which is pure and untrammelled by harsh political realities.
Labor Party history has three post-World War II messiahs: Whitlam, Hawke and Rudd. They are remembered within the party as bold, big-picture thinkers and have become a model for how Labor can win government from opposition.
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This model is difficult to test because the sample is too small. Any analysis should at least include pre-WWII Labor victories, which may tell a different story.
Labor has been such an unsuccessful federal party because Australia is a largely conservative country and because Labor often suffers internal divisions that drag it down.
Scott Morrison is deriding Albanese as Mr Invisible attempting to sneak into the Lodge not because of his commitment to open and bold democracy but because of political opportunism. He is doing so because it is the small target strategy and the government's own failings which has put the opposition ahead in the polls.
Morrison conquered the big picture strategy in 2019. He now wants to needle Albanese to do the same in 2022 as Shorten did then. Albanese still has a chance to up the ante in a bold election policy speech.
The irony is that the Labor party faithful would probably welcome it. Party members always prefer to go down with all guns blazing rather than to suffer an insipid defeat.
What Albanese does have in common with Whitlam, Hawke and Rudd, though, is the "It's Time" factor. Long-serving Coalition governments had run out of steam. Albanese has hinted at this in his reference to this being Labor's time.
This Coalition government has now won three elections, had three prime ministers, and served for three terms. It is now asking for 12 years in office. That is a big ask (more than John Howard was allowed).
Albanese should hold his nerve and suffer alleged invisibility. His small target still offers Labor its best chance.
- John Warhurst is an Emeritus Professor of Political Science at the Australian National University.