The Echidna: A scary number that could change everything

They have spent weeks roaming the country spreading fear and loathing with their scare tactics. But yesterday it was the turn of our federal politicians to be spooked. And all it took to send a shiver down a piece of their anatomy many believe they lack was a single number that might well become the turning point of this election campaign.

The annual inflation figure of 5.1 per cent revealed by the Bureau of Statistics yesterday - the highest since the introduction of the GST more than 20 years ago - exceeded all forecasts and places enormous pressure on the Reserve Bank to lift its official cash rate next week and usher in a new era of rising interest rates.

Such a move could easily be the death knell for the Morrison government, which is trailing Labor by a substantial margin in every poll and has made its handling of the economy the central thrust of its campaign. With $2 trillion in outstanding mortgages around the country at stake and economists expecting the average home loan to rise by several hundred dollars a month over the coming year, the blowback from nervous voters already unhappy with stagnant wage growth could be severe.

It's not exactly a pretty picture for Labor, either, which may find that even if it wins the election rising interest rates will mean higher repayments on record national debt and less to spend on the projects and policies it is hoping will help it win office. It's a familiar position for the party. After winning the 2007 election it ran into a little something called the Global Financial Crisis the following year and it was all downhill after that.

Still, Labor purposefully timed the unveiling of its economic plan yesterday to take place shortly after the announcement of the inflation figure. Having learned its lesson from the 2019 franking tax debacle, it kept its outlook modest. A crackdown on multinational tax avoidance would reap an extra $1.89 billion, it said, while it would cut spending on contractors and consultants by $3 billion. And of course, it would have no choice but to conduct an audit into the coalition's "rorts and wasteful spending." You can read more about it here.

Meanwhile the noise around the inflation figure - and the ongoing and almost Monty Pythonesque argument surrounding the "sneaky carbon tax" scare campaign - had the rare effect of muffling the message of the Prime Minister.

Scott Morrison is the Terminator of Australian politics, a relentless and often unstoppable campaigner who overwhelms opponents and listeners with endless statistics and figures. He was in Queensland yesterday promising regional and rural voters that he intended to heal any divide between the cities and the bush and was aiming to create 450,000 new jobs.

But he was in no mood to discuss the inflation figure at any length. "That has been principally driven ... by the big surges in petrol prices and oil prices," he offered. Even he seemed overwhelmed by a single number that just might change everything.

HAVE YOUR SAY: How has the rising cost of living affected you? Would a sharp lift in interest rates put yours or your children's mortgages at risk? And do you think there is a divide between the cities and regional and rural Australia? Send us your views:

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IN CASE YOU MISSED IT:

- The Australian Council of Social Service released a letter signed by more than 60 community organisations calling on all politicians to lift the base rate of income support to a minimum of $70 a day and to increase Commonwealth Rent Assistance by 50 per cent.

- The Greens also pleaded for more help for renters, calling for limits on rent increases and for the option of long-term rental leases. They have promised to build a million homes over the next 15 years that would be rented out at 25 percent of a tenant's income.

- A Roy Morgan poll suggested a hung parliament would be the most likely outcome of the May 21 poll, with Labor maintaining a two-party preferred lead over the coalition of 54.5 percent to 45.5.

THEY SAID IT: "There's nothing wrong with the younger generation that becoming taxpayers won't cure." - Dan Bennett.

YOU SAID IT:

"Let's have a dose of reality. No matter what government, opposition, businesses, households or motorists do, Australia won't have any impact. At around 18th on the list of global greenhouse gas emitters, and around one percent of the global total, Australia is one of the minnows. The heavy hitters are all in the northern hemisphere, and most of their energy consumption is for heating during their long, cold winters. That's when the sun don't shine and the wind don't blow. And that's why the proposed reductions are very nebulous indeed." - Bob.

"2050 targets have little value. What really matters is what we do to reduce emissions in the next decade. A 75 percent reduction in carbon emissions by 2030 is needed to avoid a death spiral of climate related disasters." - David

"Time for pollies to step up and start taking seriously the biggest problem of our time. The most effective way forward? Put a non-trivial price on carbon. Not a "tax"; a fee-and-dividend, where the entire revenue raised is refunded as a flat payment to each Australian." - Matt.

"Maybe the major parties could start talking - in good faith - with the Greens and the "teal" independents to find climate policies that all could accept and that might actually achieve what the science tells us is needed." - Felix.

"The biggest issue with climate change is the growing world population. None of the major parties will tackle this because they need a growing population to fuel their economic policy." - Ross.

"The Lib/NP have failed to grasp the 'big picture' significance of climate change to our very existence. Their approach is inadequate, starting with their conservative target and the ridiculous unidentified means to achieve it. The ALP are a little better with a stronger target but need to be more strongly supportive of specific strategies to address it." - Chris.

"Australians would do themselves a great favour if they remembered Australia produces less than two percent of global emissions. There is no need to panic. Slow, slowly catchee monkey (without killing the economy)." - Brent.

"Climate cannot be controlled from a room in Canberra. It's all about money and power." - Mike.

"One way to force change is to have a hung parliament. The large parties will have to negotiate with the Independents (as well as some smaller parties) and they in turn will force action on climate change - one of their core platforms. I look forward to that day." - Jane.

"Climate change is the result of capitalism on steroids. Until 'degrowth' (the slowing down of growth rate) is discussed we get nowhere." - Maureen.