Our new Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, has seen more than his share of crises, including when he was Leader of the House and minister for infrastructure, helping deal with the GFC and, subsequently, the challenges of minority government for the Gillard government.

While "never waste a good crisis" is often a political call to action, it is also a mantra for public servants seeking to improve public policy and its implementation, often behind the scenes. Crises can open a "policy window" for actions that were not previously on the government's agenda.

Public servants need to be ready with solutions in anticipation of a crisis that may embolden political leaders to take serious action. John Kingdon, the American political scientist, talks about how "policy entrepreneurs" (including politicians and public servants) can "lie in wait within and around government with their solutions at hand, waiting for problems to float by to which they can attach their solutions, waiting for a development in the political stream".

Let's look at an example from the pandemic. In 2021, the race to vaccinate Australians was stymied by limited supply. The Morrison government was seen as flat-footed in its negotiations with Pfizer for its new vaccine. Subsequently, as part of a broader emphasis on "modern manufacturing", the government - with support from the Andrews Labor government in Victoria - was impelled to take the unprecedented step of establishing a multi-billion-dollar deal with a big Pharma company (Moderna) to manufacture its vaccines in Melbourne.

Sometimes governments - especially new ones - look to promote a sense of crisis to justify a political agenda.

"The fiscal cupboard is bare" was long employed by new administrations. It was certainly used by Prime Minister John Howard in 1996: the parlous state of the federal coffers provided political cover to redefine election promises into "core" and "non-core". It was, however, also Howard who made this political tactic more difficult, with the Charter of Budget Honesty Act (1998) requiring Treasury and Finance to publish an independent pre-election fiscal and economic update.

That has not, of course, prevented our new Treasurer Jim Chalmers from raising "serious concerns" within a few days of becoming Treasurer.

Crises carry risks, of course. The Rudd government took urgent action to shore up business and consumer confidence in the face of the GFC in 2008 and 2009. They won international plaudits for their rapid response.

Treasury secretary Ken Henry publicly indicated that the government had acted on his advice to "go early, go hard, go households" with its fiscal stimulus package. But the government was subsequently seen to have overreached with its Home Insulation Program, where failure to adequately address risks associated with an immature industry and low regulation controls led to the deaths of four young installers and significant fraudulent activity.

We have drawn on our combined experiences and the lessons from the GFC that were well articulated in a paper by two experienced bureaucrats (David Tune and Megan Edwards), to distil some lessons for the public service about policy in periods of crisis.

First, taking up Kingdon's advice, public servants need to be ready to offer well-grounded policy options when political leaders become receptive to new ideas. Monitoring emerging issues, engaging in scenario and horizon planning, scanning international policy trends all help with this.

The "wargaming" that Ken Henry and his Treasury colleagues had done with other key economic players such as the Reserve Bank was crucial to their ability to confidently brief Kevin Rudd in 2008 on a recommended fiscal stimulus.

As Tune and Edwards observe, it is crucial to invest in such relationships during "peace time". During the pandemic, for example, Steven Kennedy as Treasury secretary was able to reach out to Matt Comyn of the Commonwealth Bank for real-time data on consumer spending, rather than waiting for much slower data from the ABS - as both men reported in a discussion with Jessica Irvine, for the Institute for Public Administration Australia.

Second, encourage a culture of innovation and creativity within the APS, including among the lower and middle ranks. This can deepen the ability to offer "pragmatic innovation" during times when fast and effective solutions are needed. And if the APS has no good ideas, governments will very quickly turn to outside advice - often proffered by those who are motivated more by self-interest than the public good.

Third, screw up your courage! In a crisis, political leaders may be prepared to act contrary to their ideological preferences.

The former treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, displayed this in the pandemic's first year with the JobKeeper program and the JobSeeker coronavirus supplement, as both he and commentators were quick to remark.

While there is no certainty that their ideas will fall on fertile ground, public servants should be tactical in offering up ideas that might normally be anathema to the government, when the flames of crisis are about to burn the house down.

At the same time, public service advisers need to be able to caution ministers on the risks involved in new programs and impossible deadlines. The hard advice on trimming a broader policy agenda should be provided, as Tune and Edwards counsel, notwithstanding that this can be particularly galling for ambitious new governments. This requires public servants to be finely attuned to the government's "peace-time" agenda and the sequencing of reforms.

Fourth, the trend towards the dominance of central agency advice highlights another potential weakness when crises overwhelm a government. The lesson from programs such as the Home Insulation Program is that direct investment proposals need the close involvement of policy experts and those responsible for delivery, including line departments and state and local governments, in order to be aware of, and manage, risk.

The relationships and knowledge built up over time among experts and bureaucrats are invaluable resources to draw on. When Howard as a new prime minister took the bold step following the Port Arthur massacre of securing the National Firearm Agreement in 1996, he was able to do so because officials in the attorney-general's and police departments had spent many years patiently developing legislation for uniform gun control in preparation for when it was needed.

Paradoxically, governments sometimes need to be prepared to not act in the face of a crisis, to hold their nerve and trust that they have appropriate policies and safeguards in place.

This is particularly hard when the unrelenting media scrutiny creates intense pressure for action, any action. We have seen this recently when Western nations held firm on not declaring a "no fly" zone over Ukraine, to avoid direct confrontation with Russia.

What crises will the new Albanese government face? Military flashpoints in the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait? Another pandemic? The Ukraine-Russia war triggering global economic panic and civil unrest over food and energy supplies? Mass population movements driven by climate change? Who knows!

What we can be certain of is, regardless of the crisis, the government's response will be more effective if it has a public service that has the capacity, the capability and the courage to give hard advice when it is needed most.

How well the APS responds to whatever unanticipated challenges arise over the next few years could well determine the future of the government and the nation. It's that important.