The federal Liberals are in a parlous state, after an election that was not just lost to Labor but where "teals" stripped them of a batch of traditional seats.
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In coming months the Liberal Party faces fresh assaults, in state heartland electorates, from a similar "community candidate" movement.
Victoria goes to the polls in November, and NSW in March. The Liberals - in opposition in Victoria, in government in NSW - could have a good deal to fear if the tide runs again for teals.
In theory, the Victorian opposition should be in a strong position against the ageing Andrews government whose multiple skeletons are on view. In practice, it's a shambles. Liberal leader Matthew Guy is unimpressive, and he's now mired in the messy aftermath of a scandal around his former chief of staff's seeking funds inappropriately.
In NSW, the Coalition government has a record that should be saleable. But it has been scandal-ridden, most recently losing two ministers, one of whom, Stuart Ayres, was deputy Liberal leader.
Ayres was caught up in the saga of John Barilaro's appointment as trade commissioner to New York. The tortuous ins and outs of the Barilaro affair have been aired at a parliamentary inquiry this week, with the former deputy premier and Nationals leader (who eventually withdrew from the job) casting himself as an injured party.
On Friday in NSW details broke of another, and particularly shocking, scandal, with allegations of sexual assault, attempted sexual assaults and sexual harassment documented in a review of the state parliamentary workplace.
These scandals (and many others) in the two states are political manna for the community independents movement. The public hate such bad behaviour and, as happened with the federal election, community independents will make integrity and the quest for a better kind of politics a core part of their campaigns.
Last weekend former federal independent Cathy McGowan ran a well-attended online post-federal election convention to promote community independents. The discussion groups included one on each of the two state elections.
Simon Holmes à Court's Climate 200, which provided crucial funding for the teals, will likely be a player in the state contests. In July it polled key Victorian seats, finding potential support for teal-type independents in several Liberal seats (plus one Labor). Local groups have been searching for candidates.
The push for state independents is leveraging off the federal success. But federal teal MPs are not expected to become involved - they want to reinforce the message of their personal "independence".
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Regardless, in state areas where teal-type candidates will run, there'll likely be ready-made volunteer cohorts to help. Many citizens, energised by the federal successes, seem anxious to take part in what they see as a new brand of politics.
In NSW, the group North Sydney Independent, which chose successful federal teal candidate for North Sydney Kylea Tink (but is now at arm's length from her), is looking at Liberal seats in the area. As one organiser says, "people in North Sydney have caught the democracy bug". A challenge in NSW is the state's optional preferential voting system that does make it harder for independents.
As in the federal election, Climate 200 will wait until candidates emerge. It will then assess them and their chances before deciding whether to provide support. Holmes à Court says it "could support three to six candidates in Victoria and possibly more in NSW".
It needs to choose carefully. One reason for the teal successes federally was that the candidates were so impressive - mediagenic professional women. It could be more difficult to find equivalent talent for state contests, which are less attractive to high flyers.
If community candidates do well at these elections, there might be potential down the track in Western Australia, where one would expect a swing in 2025 against Labor's massive majority. The WA Liberal Party has been almost wiped out at a state level, and there is a teal federal MP, Kate Chaney, in Curtin.
Although she personally wouldn't be involved, Chaney says some of her supporters have expressed an interest in a state effort. "By 2025 the community independent movement may have developed in a way that makes it an attractive option for communities who want to see a different type of representation," Chaney says.
Independents have long had significant presences, and often been in the balance of power, in various state parliaments. In Victoria and NSW, both sides are said to be concerned about independents generally.
What's special about the teals and other "community candidates", arising from "voices" and similar groups, is they are part of a loose web, linked by some common funding, networking and the issues on which they campaign. This doesn't make them a "party", as their opponents claim, but it does make them a "democracy movement" of sorts.
Federally, the community-candidate movement has eaten away at the Liberals' progressive wing, cutting a swathe through the moderates in the parliamentary party.
The federal Liberals now face the existential question of how to juggle appeals to outer suburbia, where Peter Dutton feels most comfortable, and to the urban areas, currently lost, that used to be the party's "blue ribbons" (including for fund-raising), and which are vital to winning government.
We should introduce a caution. Just as many people underestimated the chances of the teals federally, there is a risk of over-estimating their state prospects. But if the independent movement does erode the Liberal base in core areas at state level, it will be all the harder for the party to re-group nationally.
Although part of the federal teal success was due to "strategic" voting by some Labor supporters, victories for state community candidates in Victoria and NSW would reinforce the message that Liberal supporters are migrating to a new political force.
For the Liberal Party, the implications would be alarming for the long term.
- Michelle Grattan is a press gallery journalist and former editor of The Canberra Times. She is a professorial fellow at the University of Canberra and writes for The Conversation, where her columns also appear.