It will take a week or so before the final composition of the new ACT Legislative Assembly is settled, and there may be a surprise or two yet, but the overall result seems clear enough. Labor, with 39.1 per cent of the vote, should have seven seats, and has won the highest proportion of the vote. The Liberals seem to have won eight seats, and to have secured a considerable swing - if not from Labor - but, at the end of the day, represent only 38 per cent of the vote.
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The Greens appear to have won two seats, down two, and to have suffered a swing against them of about 4.6 per cent. In theory, the Greens could and should discuss with both parties the terms on which they might offer support, but the continuation of the belligerence against them by Liberal leader Zed Seselja suggests he is unlikely to want or to offer any coalition in exchange for power.
That then suggests a 9-8 Labor-Greens government, representing slightly more than 50 per cent of the overall vote, suggesting it is the result most voters wanted. No doubt the Liberal Party would have obtained half or more of those unexhausted 12 per cent of the votes not represented by seats, but even then its share of the popular vote would be significantly below Labor's.
That said, Mr Seselja is entitled to feel pleased with the result, from both his own point of view and his party's. He himself switched from the most populous seat, Molonglo to the Tuggeranong-based seat of Brindabella, and the Liberal Party performed exceptionally well there, indeed significantly outpolling the Labor Party and almost certainly capturing three of the five places available in that seat. The Liberal campaign squeezed out the existing Greens member. Mr Seselja's campaign was focused on rates, charges and household costs, and plainly struck a chord among younger families. That a personal factor was involved seemed emphasised by the fact the Liberal vote in Ginninderra, at 33.3 per cent, was 12.4 per cent lower than in Brindabella, and nearly 10 per cent lower than in Molonglo. But Katy Gallagher, leading the Labor team, can also claim some degree of personal triumph, whether because she personally won the highest number if not the highest proportion of votes or because there was an overall swing to Labor of 1.7 per cent, and, in her own seat, a swing to Labor of 4.9 per cent.
The ACT is used to close results, and experience has shown that a working majority of only one presents no great problems, especially given the Speaker has a deliberative vote. It is widely expected the Greens will demand a ministry as the price of its support, which may well suit Ms Gallagher, who has probably lost an experienced minister and who may be reluctant to give any greater responsibilities to those not yet made part of her executive team. Having the Greens in coalition, as opposed to having a promise of support on critical matters, has the advantage of helping to bind them on difficult decisions, making it harder for them to associate themselves with popular decisions while loudly dissociating themselves from unpopular ones.
Formal coalition means sharing responsibility as well as credit. Whether under Ms Gallagher, or even under Mr Seselja, the next four years of government are bound to involve some unpopular decisions, not least if, as seems likely, there is an Abbott federal coalition government towards the end of next year. If, as seems certain, that leads to significant cutbacks in government spending, on top of the cutbacks already occurring under the Gillard government, those supervising the local economy will have their work cut out to prevent local recession.
Some will say the result suggests the Gallagher government should tread softly or more slowly on its tax reform proposals, which, in dangerously oversimplified form, Mr Seselja made his chief campaign issue.
There are two reasons Ms Gallagher should carry on and be brave on the subject, even as she rues the fact Labor did too little to explain, consult and develop its proposal before the electorate. First, its proposals must be said to have been endorsed by voters, even if opposition to them seems to have galvanised about three-eighths of the electorate.
Just as importantly, it will be by such reforms that the ACT will help create a business and employment-friendly economy better able to survive fits and starts of national government spending. By no means did the result give a green light to bigger, more intrusive, or more expensive government. But voters agreed that a move away from inefficient and anti-job taxes, such as payroll and stamp duties, was in the territory's interest, and will make the ACT more competitive and a better place to come to, to employ people and to do business. The electorate's decision is always final, but it is even more satisfying when it is right.