The tracking poll taken last month and obtained by The Canberra Times shows the Government failed to get a bounce from the elevation of Katy Gallagher to the role of Chief Minister in May, after the resignation of Jon Stanhope.

According to the Liberals' pollsters, the party is sitting on a primary vote of about 38 per cent, with the Government on about 35 per cent.

The results of the tracking poll, with a sample size of 400 respondents, comes after a major internal poll early this year which showed the two major parties neck-and-neck on primary votes. Mr Stanhope won government in 2008 with a primary vote of 37 per cent and the support of four Greens MLAs after the Liberals only managed a primary vote effort of 31per cent.

If the poll is correct and an election was held on Saturday, Ms Gallagher would still probably form government, with a likely result of seven MLAs for Labor, seven for the Liberals and three for the ACT Greens.

But the cross-bench party could slip down to as few as two MLAs, according to the Liberals pollsters, although still allowing Ms Gallagher to form a slender minority government with Greens support. Senior Liberal figures say the polling shows that they are in a competitive position less than 12 months out from the election and point to several developments between the March poll and the latest tracking numbers.

They believe the resignation of Mr Stanhope and the elevation of Ms Gallagher, the announced retirement from politics of John Hargreaves, the appointment of Chris Bourke as an MLA in Ginninderra and Liberals' Leader Zed Seselja's decision to move from the Molonglo electorate to the southern seat of Brindabella have all played a part in the shifting electoral ground. Opposition strategists are also convinced that the party is in much better shape in the polls than in the run-up to the 2008 territory election. which it narrowly lost. in March of that year, the same pollsters had the Stanhope government in a commanding primary vote lead over the Liberals.

But an aggressive Liberals' campaign, heavily reliant on TV advertising undermining the Labor leader's credibility, had the Libs ahead on primary votes, but not in an election winning position, by August.

The government clawed back some of the ground it had lost by election day. A senior Liberal source said party strategists believed the latest poll results showed it had a fighting chance in next October's poll.

''More than anything, these numbers show that this election is wide open and the team is competing strongly,'' he said.

''The poll indicates that the ALP has not received the bump in support they may have expected from installing Katy Gallagher as Chief Minister.

''It's encouraging that 12 months out, we're in a much stronger position than at the same point in the last term.''